RE:RE:RE:Aimia Details Results of Common Share Substantial Issuer BidYou make interesting points and my money hopes that MIM can pull it off somehow.
However:
-The fund performance has been absolutely and relatively poor to horrible in the last few years.
https://www.mittlemanbrothers.com/performance/
-Their holdings in Q4 2019 have, on an absolute and relative basis, done poorly.
-There may be reasonable (to some degree) reasons for the underperformance but, if the present 'environment' persists, the poor trend will continue.
-When they report performance in 2020 (10-yr number), the +150.86% obtained in 2009 will be replaced with the return obtained in 2019. Ouch.
-Redemption pressures may become, understandably, somewhat elevated.
So the 'controlling' shareholder is in a weak position if Aeromexico approaches them with a low-ball offer and may not resist very well under hostile conditions even if, mathematically, they can vote against offers that perhaps a majority of equity holders would accept.
Just in case, I sent letters to AeroMexico and Delta to help build a defense and pro-actively counteract the 'fairness opinions' that are bound to surface at some point. I would suggest that retail investors would benefit from more active involvement because MIM has not shown, so far, an activist ability in correlation to the level of their ownership. For the AC 'deal', they still accepted an offer that was less than 50% of the value they had attributed earlier and now, they just orchestrated a buyback based on a report (the Alexander one) that justified the buyback on a PLM value much lower than what they report in their quarterly review numbers..
I would submit that some help is required. Some people have suggested that a debt-recap type of dividend should be considered at the PLM level. Let's make some noise.
If I remember correctly, you posted interesting information on the valuation related to the Velocity loyalty unit (Virgin Australia). Even if the GOL-Smiles may be used to define a lower bound of value for PLM, you could focus on Velocity and send a valuation assessment report with advice on strategy to Aimia's evolving Board and to AeroMexico to get things going. It will be interesting to see how Velocity's value evolves with the loss of a their major commercial partner, BP, which was likely behind, in large part, the growth of gross billings and profitability in the last few years and which has a Nectar taste to it, in terms of impact.
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/virgin-australia-buys-back-full-ownership-of-velocity-frequent-flyer
I'm sure AeroMexico can come up with the funds to buy PLM at an attractive price, given approriate circumstances for the negotiation.