AltaGas Ltd T.ALA

RE:Comparing peers to ALA

[YodaLayhehoo]

YodaLayhehoo wrote:

Altagas 
                                               2016A   2017A   2018E   2019E   2020E

Debt Analysis Net Debt/EBITDA 5.5x     5.6x     9.3x      4.8x     4.8x
EBITDA                               (M) $701    $797    $1,001  $1,282  $1,291
Total Debt                          (M) $3,879 $3,672 $9,470  $6,220  $6,251
Payout Ratio                             85.0%  82.1%  118.9%   47.5%    43.9%

Price/Cash Flow                       10.0x    9.1x    7.2x      4.2x      3.8x
Price/Adj. EPS                         34.8x   24.0x   16.7x    11.8x     10.0x


Enbridge

                                      2016A   2017A   2018E   2019E   2020E

Net Debt/EBITDA             5.9x      6.3x     4.8x      4.8x     4.3x
Ebitda                            $6,902   $10,317 $12,701 $12,982 $14,372
Total Debt (M)                $41,568 $65,180 $60,974 $62,574 $62,574
Payout Ratio                   52.0%    66.2%     61.1%    66.2%    65.1%

Price/Adj. EPS                25.0x    25.3x     16.2x    17.4x     15.3x
Price/Cash Flow              9.2x     10.9x      7.6x      8.6x      7.8x


Inter Pipeline

                            2016A   2017A   2018E   2019E   2020E

Net Debt/EBITDA   5.6x     4.6x      4.6x      5.0x     5.3x
Total Debt (M)       $5,806 $5,708 $5,708   
Payout Ratio          68.2%   64.2%   66.0%    76.1%    81.1%

Price/Adj. EPS       21.4x    17.6x   12.6x    14.6x    15.3x
Price/Cash Flow     12.0x    9.8x    7.0x      8.2x      8.8x

Algonquin Power

                          2016A   2017A   2018E   2019E   2020E

Debt/EBITDA       8.1x      4.4x     5.3x      4.9x     4.7x
EBITDA (M)         $361      $682    $719      $831    $904
Payout Ratio      98.4%     80.8%   91.3%    83.1%   84.9%

Price/Adj. EPS   20.2x     19.8x    18.3x    15.7x    14.6x
Price/Cash Flow 10.6x    10.3x     8.9x      8.7x     8.2x

It looks as though Altagas is trading at half price from a price to cash flow basis and from an EPS basis as well. They have the lowest payout ratio. Every company in the space trades at about 8x Price to cashflow except for ALA Which currently trades at 4.2x. It's also worthly to note that the riskiest investment currently looks to be AQN Algonquin power which is the market favorite. AQN also leveraged up the balance sheet to over 8x debt to ebitda and recovered quickly in 2016. They became the market darling after that. ALA looks to have a fast recovery imminent and times change fast in the market. ALA looks to be trading at a 50% discount if you believe that is a fair value for the company that is your own personal choice. I'm betting times change eventually and Utilities look to be coming back into favor so I'd imagine the depressed values and multiples of all the companies should improve over time. 



 

Maybe let the DD speak for itself and don't bother with the 12 year old girl that like to post here JZ slong . WGL is making money as we speak with a cold spell going through the area. They expect 850-900 million in FFO over 1 Billion in Ebitda. The rate base cases should increase revenue shortly and ridley island comes online in a few short months. Within 3 quarters the company will have a normalized valuation and trade in line with peers. There's no reason why it shouldn't. Even management can't screw up a regulated earnings. If you think about it, they increased revenues and EPS and Ebitda with this deal. Also unlocked some value by selling some assets at great multiples. Selling this company at $12 and watching it double while on the sidelines crying will be all the payback we need for all the ridiculous posts from our troll.