AltaGas Ltd T.ALA

What i'm expecting from the FR

[bossu]

From the Q1 2019 and Q1 2020
we had an EBITDA increase of $ 33 M or  7 %

Q1 2019   $466 M and Q1 2020  $ 499 M 

Looking at the Q2 2019 financial report where we had       $ 203  what  to expect in the Q2 2020

- increase Ebitda from RIPET
.........................Shippement      Load 
........Q2 2019 ..109 963 tons
........Q2 2020... 304 248 Tons ( 7 loads)

Ebitda for the Q2 2020  to be  $ 42 M  while it was 
 $ 14 M last year so an increase of $ 28 M

- 9 % increase in Utilities ( cannot evaluate)

- reduction in interest on debt 

So we have to see an Ebitda increase of $ 203
+ $ 28 M (RIPET) and increase from US Utilities

I' m expecting a minimum of $ 231 M or 14 %
and  $ 730 M for the H1 2020 from $ 669 M in the H1 2019 or 9 % increase .
This is according to what we know : 60 % 
 EBITDA for 2020 and  a minimum of $ 1 216 M 
for the year

Finally any number over $ 231 M for the Q2 would be a good indication about the ALA operation going forward.

If not, Bossu will de disappointed and assume many other investers will be.

[JohnSP]

Bossu I will be very disappointed if EBITDA < CAD231 M for Q2, why: 1) 2019Q2 = 203 2) As you estimate RIPET = +28 3) Utilities is 60% of business, so 208 x 0.6 x 0.09 = +11 4) Interest Reduction = +4? 5) Total 2020Q2 Estimate = 247, +22% over 2019Q2 ! ! ! The bad news is Mr Market knows 3) and 4) and they are baked into SP, but 2) Ripet may give a bit of Gap Up in SP on Thursday after PR

[masfortuna]

John I facrored in a 2m interest reduction and 10 million for Ripet. for my numbers.  Are we sure Ripet is at 28 million???