Post by
asforecasts on Nov 25, 2019 7:52pm
Ana Paula is insanely undervalued. Alio is now deep value.
I bought in after 3rd qtr financials cratered this stock but stepped out of half when I saw the $70mil impairment of Ana Paula. I've been looking at the technical report and believe that mgnt has mispriced this asset. Market cap to tangible book value based on a reasonable valuation of AP is .25. The market is valuing assets at 25c on the dollar. Getting Florida Canyon to even subpar profit is a 3-5 bagger. I only hope mgnt does not sell AP. Appears that Backens is a very conservative guy and could be smart enough not to screw the pooch. Second leach pad ramp up in 3 to 6 months should get them into volume to spread out fixed costs.
Anyway, back in my full initial position.
Comment by
PianoMan on Dec 06, 2019 12:56pm
It may be difficult for Alio to put meaningful dollars in Ana Paula for a while. But they Leagold (LMC) Los Filos mines is 1 hour drive from Ana and Media Luna for Torex Media Luna mine is 90 minutes away. I can see multiple angles how a deal can be made as Ana is an open pit to begin with. There are ways to leverage this asset which is completely ignored by the market right now.
Comment by
asforecasts on Dec 11, 2019 12:00pm
Sclarda, Thanks for the reply. My figures are quarterly, not annual. Cash flow will be good but they will need financing to develop Ana Paula.
Comment by
asforecasts on Dec 12, 2019 9:52am
You got it. I normally trade gold stocks according to my gold timing model but I think ALO is a hold through the next cycle. Just to see if they get the dominoes in line we should own the stock.