Argonaut Gold Inc T.AR

Not a Done Deal

[finnboy]

Anybody that believes this is a "done deal" is sadly mistaken!
Our illustrious board and the 40% that have approved this deal already, likely stand to make ludicrous incentives if they are able to sell this to the other 27% of retail shareholders required to make it fly.
If you've ever been to a market where sellers are peddling their goods daily and you take the first offer, I would say you may be a "sucker"!   And there is one of those born every day!
Do not vote yes for this deal as you might want to lower your jeans, grab your ankles and lube up.
Of course all of this is just in my opinion!
Glta - finnboy

[rvirdi6394]

When do you think we can get a competing offer?

[finnboy]

Not sure about that Rvirdi,... all I know is we still get to vote on it and hopefully stop it ourselves!

[finnboy]

Have a look at Noront Resources when it was bought out by Wyloo Metals a couple years ago. There was a number of offers that came in on that one and it appreciated nicely from first to last.

[psych01]

Finn--the part I agree with is that those inside the ropes are raking it in, Richard Young et al;  to think this hasn't been in the works for months, the deception factor as I said is ponzi depth, would be naive. The Wawa goose sh+t on just about everyone, exceptions of course, but most.  It's done, was as I said planned meticulously all the while stringing the best of them along

[ARGONAUTGOLD]

I don’t believe there will be a competing bid. The Net Present Value (NVP) with a 5% discount rate, gold price at $2,100 per ounce, and an initial investment of US$500 million, using Magino’s operating data from the 2024 guidance, is approximately US$120 million. This calculation excludes the royalties and hedges. I’m not trying to be negative, but this entire business plan took a downturn very

[ARGONAUTGOLD]

I also ran 1.15 g/t through the mill, which the company is unable to do as of today. Running 1.0 g/t through the mill results in a negative NPV.

[ARGONAUTGOLD]

Hence, "Other companies will be obliged to run low-grade materials through the mill. The operation is far from being ‘risk-free,’ as the other companies would need to construct the expansion if they wanted to profit from the operation."  

[ARGONAUTGOLD]

Magino has actually not yet averaged 1.00 g/t in a quarter, as you can tell from the screenshot.

[okgonow]

seems like people were right about you  before all this long wided posts with mindboggeling figurs and calculations why Ar is a great deal and how people were beeing dumb not to understand as compared to now... things havent changed THAT dramaticaly other than a buyout offer was received. and YOU of course on the opposite side with a pessamistic view  mmmmmmmmm whats your deal but

[ARGONAUTGOLD]

OkNowGo… They sold all of their assets. It’s over. I'm no longer investing in Argonaut Gold; instead, I'm betting on the outcome of the acquisition offer. There won’t be any more Argonaut Gold after June, as 40% of shareholders have already approved this. It’s over. The company will not be expanding the mill and I doubt we'll see the results from the drill operation as the results were

[Sclarda2]

"Its remarkable how dramativally things have changed." Yes it is. You have been pumping this for months as the best thing ever and all the b.s. you are spouting now has been known for sometime. The same old story when you buy you pump when you sell you bash.  Grab a spine you little worm.

[ARGONAUTGOLD]

No, I think the best thing is how you took a $50k loss, and now the market price is back up where you bought in, you clown.

[Lifexprt]

You are probably correct with Alamos being the best bid to date due to operational synergies. Alamos should move on this once all said and done. I am in for the spinco now as nominal valuation of $60 million is undervalued by a factor of 2x to start, could go much higher depending on what is planned for FC, Heliostar payment, capital for CapEx at FC, management team of spinco and many many other

[psych01]

Life---grasping at straws; SpinCo starts with a 10:1, does what all desperate reverse situations do, goes down, reverses again maybe again and is sold for scrap as the insiders skim whatever they can in the process.  Mexico is a socialist failed state for all intents and purposes, U.S. asset is already on life support, they will pull the plug.  Interesting, amusing really to see people

[Lifexprt]

What value would you put on FC mine? It's debt and hedge free. Forget mexican mines. I am all ears.

[ARGONAUTGOLD]

Life… Florida Canyon is a write-off. If you run the mill using the operating data from the 2024 guidance, the Net Present Value (NPV) with a 5% discount rate, gold price at $2,100 per ounce, and an initial investment of US$0, is negative US$200 million. This calculation excludes the royalties. I was hoping the company would sell off this operation, as investor relations stated the company wasn’t

[Lifexprt]

Not convinced Argo Highest production in 19 years from FC in 2023, third leaching pad will further increase production and AISC post 2024 CapEx is closer to $1,750. Mine life is still around 10 years and they haven't released drilling or sulphide potential. With gold above $2,200 and potentionally marching higher, it could transform into a profitable operation based on what they achieved over

[crazytimes]

Based on who saying what? lol. Look what he said about Magino? Just my opinion. 

[ARGONAUTGOLD]

Life, show me your numbers. I want to see your detailed cash flow table, which insinuates that what you’re saying is actually true. Enough with the speculations. Here are my numbers. Either tell me what I’m calculating wrong or show me by providing your cash flow analysis.

[rvirdi6394]

Argonaut- if you sold, please move on. We don't need your expert opinion. 

[rvirdi6394]

Maybe I shouldn't have posted my comment but I am putting you on ignore. Your numbers haven't helped me a bit.

[okgonow]

all i needed if Argo says its cr.ap it has potential !!!!!! what a joker this guy is  who runs detailed analysis on companys he just sold dosent own and has no intention of owning?? ill reasess and now think Spinco ( FC and Mexican assets) are  worth more than $0.00 how much IDK

[ARGONAUTGOLD]

I didn't create that today you genius.. I created that before the company sold off their assets..

[okgonow]

ya your interpretation was prob the exact opposite, as you had nothing but great things to say about AR, their operations and prospects going forward. mr spinner nice try.... and i attack you now because of the FUD you are spreading crazy.. and scar .had you figured out ... i even give Sheep credit for pegging you

[ARGONAUTGOLD]

OkNowGo, why not instead of getting so hostile, you provide us with information which proves me wrong? I'd like to see posts like that, instead of the constant attacks which are meaningless.

[Lifexprt]

You are running with 58k oz for LOM while guidance is already 63-70k oz in 2024 and will be higher come 2025. Your AISC is based on this year's elevated cost due to 40M of CapEx and additional 15M in construction capital. Once you adjust those with AISC closer to what the mine is capable of (Especially given excess material that has been mined and not leached yet) your numbers will look much

[ARGONAUTGOLD]

Life, roughly 60,000 ounces per year represents the reality of milling 9.4 million tonnes of ore with an average gold grade of 0.33 g/t and a recovery rate of 59%. I excluded any capital expenditure (CapEx) costs; CapEx remains at zero. I don't believe you actually reviewed the cash flow table. I would still like to see yours as you're so certain the mine is feasible.

[Lifexprt]

Argo, mine was cash flow positive in Q3/Q4 of last year with gold around $1,900. You can't be serious with gold above $2,200 they can't make FC work especially given operational improvements implemented throughout 2023. Third leach pad once completed should increase ounces produced by a significant amount come 2025 with a much lower AISC 

[ARGONAUTGOLD]

Life, Florida Canyon was not profitable in 2023. Show me your numbers. Here are the company’s numbers stated in their year-end MD&A for 2023:   Capital expenditures at the Florida Canyon mine for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2023, were  US$3.5 million and US$17.3 million, respectively, largely related to leases of mining equipment.    AISC

[Lifexprt]

Argo you are using quarterly production of 18k oz and annual CapEx in your calculations $17.5 million is the figure for annual CapEx. If you want to annual figures use 71k oz as that's your 2023 production  Quarterly CapEx was $3.5 million, quarterly sales 18.2k oz and quarterly AISC around $1,600  Net realized was $1,907 roughly $300 per ounce of profit At $2,200 you are at $600

[Lifexprt]

Here Argo  Your own post  Quarterly costs, you just dumped annual CapEx into your calculations  No wonder it makes no sense 

[Lifexprt]

Here is the post  Annual CapEx is $17.3 but you decide to dump it into quarterly calculation blowing your AISC out and run with that

[ARGONAUTGOLD]

That isn’t my cash flow model. I literally just posted it. The post you’re sharing was a quick mock-up.   I sent you the table in a private message, in a post on here, and again today. You’re just arrogant and, like I said, you like to use your imagination. I sent it to you again here, look below this message.     Since you think you’re such a thorough investor, why don’t

[Lifexprt]

That's definitely your post and your table, I am not a fan of napkin math or cash flow statements with inaccurate information. Q4 cash cost was $1,410 Q4 AISC was $1,663  Those will increase significantly in 2024 due to additional CapEx of $70M and decrease to around $1,800 AISC in 2025.  Question is, will SpinCo have sufficient capital to complete this? My sources say there is

[ARGONAUTGOLD]

Lifexprt, you should go back to school and learn what a table is… The post you shared doesn’t include a table. I don’t know why you refuse to acknowledge my cash flow model for FC. It sounds to me like you’re in denial of the truth.   Your post just contains conjecture which you made up using your imagination.   Where did you read ‘$1,800 AISC in 2025’? You didn’t read it, you

[ARGONAUTGOLD]

Here is the cashflow model for FC which includes CapEx and royalties. I also implemented a US$200 million tax incentive for CapEx over LOM. As you can see, net pre-tax free cash flows are negative, even when gold price is set at US$2,500 per ounce.

[psych01]

Some of us are getting very uncomfortable with this bickering, too much like a relationship breaking down.  Just go with what I've said from the beginning of the winding down process--SpinCo is the  entity wherein the scoundrels that contrived this dumpster fire, deposit the cr+p that Alamos won't take.  After the 10/1 rollback, a short time later they will dilute, rollback

[Lifexprt]

Let's call it quits  Magino was the prize that wasn't while OldCo still has value, don't be surprised once the dust settles. We can reconvene post Q1 as picture will be significantly less distorted 

[crazytimes]

Life....  I wasn't here for florida canyon I was here for what I hoped would be ANOTHER alamos like story in AR, not the actual alamos!!!!!!!!! lol   The facts you are saying may be true but the problem is who says? Let's not even talk about the statements made on video about multiples of dollars. How about all this? Taken from the current AR presentation still up on

[Lifexprt]

In all honesty in grand scheme of things $700 million which is what Alamos paid for Magino isn't a bad price for a 140koz low grade operation that theoretically was supposed to be low cost around $1,000 AISC but in reality turned out to be closer to $1,500. I think what killed it were mill delays as well as lower than planned initial grade (2-3 years) this would have made more sense at 250k oz

[ppp]

Add to that they needed another 50 mil to keep the lights on till the deal closes. Alamos could of waited till these clowns went broke, then bought it out of CCAA. So they gave them a way out. 

[Lifexprt]

Let's hope this $50M goes to CapEx at FC 

[Sclarda2]

Yes Magino is a low grade operation at 1.2 grams per tonne and 20 plus years of reserves and brand new mill  but Florida Canyon at .5 grams per tonne and running low on gold reserves it the best thing ever.  Thats why Alamos bought Magino and doesnt want anything to do with that other garbage and Mexico. You go ahead and load up on Spinco with its $10 miilion in working capital. If its

[crazytimes]

lifexprt... you may be right. But I can't think of a time with this stock that locking in a gain on a pop has been the wrong move. I know this is different, but really believe this could go either way, up or down. For example, how hard would it be for a fund to short Alamos, and AR stock with any sign of weekness in gold. You have gold, and Alamos at all time highs. Not saying it can't go

[okgonow]

i give the Spinco a value of $0.00 that way i just judge the deal on what i end up with in the Alamos shares and the potential of the synergies this merger brings to the table with the POG on its way north. any miner is connected to the underlying commodity having said that all mines are still beeing valuated on a $1600 to $1800 per oz price. so they are all lagging behind the price, some by

[crazytimes]

You might be right, but about a couple of weeks ago Alamos was trading with a $15 handle and has had about a 35% run. Not saying it can't go higher as gold is hitting all time highs as I type but my instincts are a sell off may be just a likely on the near horizon.  Just my opinion and the trader in me. 

[Lifexprt]

Potentially although with Lynn Lake and Magino you are looking at 900k oz at sub $1,000 AISC almost entirely from Canada. Definitely an A+ gold miner commanding premium valuation.

[okgonow]

also when Alomos gets everything humming there will be an offer by one of the really big guys! whats the premium on a company with that??

[crazytimes]

okgo... if a major wants Alamos they would be much better off buying AR now and making Alamos spend on infrastructure requirements reemerge, alamos share price drops. Then they get both on the cheap. Makes no sense to let them get it 'humming' before making an offer. Just my opinion. 

[okgonow]

yes crazy thats why i think we will receive a counter-offer in the next 2-3 weeks  that comment was only to draw the post made by life to its most probable conclusion  I am more confident in the top line  re; counter-offer some really good posts by you lately  you had Argo pegged i was wrong

[okgonow]

and if there are no competing offers that means that AR right now is worth what Alamos offered for it. the market has spoken ...thats how it works as i said before ..i think there will be other offers in the next 2-3 weeks