Aecon Group Inc T.ARE

Comparing Bird to Aecon

[Gabriel]

Conclusion 1: EBITDA margins are increasing substantially for Aecon but also for Bird. This means there is less competition as their backlogs are very large. In my opinion, there will be a gradual valuation to EBITDA multiple adjustment in the next few quarters.

Conclusion 2: Bird is undervalued yet Bird valuation is higher than Aecon's while EBITDA of Bird is expected below 200m for 2024 to compare to Aecon's  375m in the last 12 months and123m EBITDA excluding LSTKs last Q.

[Henrye]

 Gabriel, both conclusions intertwined with one another absolutely make great logical sense and are flawlessly factual. There was a lot of spotlight on Aecon for a while now ,while Bird quietly coasted under the wire surging upwards. I strongly believe ( in fact I know) that there is in the horizon in 2024 a lot of great news pending from Aecon ! Aecon is saying goodbye to all the negative

[Henrye]

Would like to share information that came out of meetings between Metrolinx Mr Vester and all key construction companies etc with tons of positive takeaways that will change the way Aecon and others will bid in a future for a win win mega complex contracts that will result in Aecon and others guarantee themselves  to be profitable and safe.  This is as a result of the legacy projects

[Henrye]

Interesting stats as of today on following Aecon   Yield        5.35% Beta         1.16%  EPS           2.25 Mkt cap     $ 845 Million  Bird  Yield          3.31% Beta            1.20 % EPS              1

[Gabriel]

With such a high demand for their services, contractors are increasing their profit margins. In addition, and in order to reduce ballooning costs, owners are absorbing most all risks today. And the demand is still increasing. See article just published in the Globe this evening. Most of that money is spent on execution or construction. With much higher profit margins, EPS will increase multi fold.

[Gabriel]

Supportive evidence for your data on Aecon. See page 16 Q3 2023.:  Earnings per share diluted. Last Q3 and last 12 months. https://aeconcomfiles.blob.core.windows.net/web-live/docs/default-source/investor-briefcase/are---q3-2023-ir-presentation.pdf

[Gabriel]

But it includes profits on business dispositions. Slide 26 excludes those and LSTK and is more indicative of what is to come post-LSTK.  https://aeconcomfiles.blob.core.windows.net/web-live/docs/default-source/investor-briefcase/are---q3-2023-ir-presentation.pdf

[Henrye]

Gabriel, great supporting information, clearly reinforcing what we have consistently shared. Bottom line is that post LSTK, the best is yet to come ! All infrastructure for the future will be carefully chosen with one and thing in mind!!!! Profitability through increased margins and totally more sophisticated methods in  costing! Fixed cost contracts, totally disrupted , a thing in a past!

[Henrye]

Gabriel I just stumbled on this very interesting read. hhps:// www.infrastructure.com/ crown-corner-infrastructure-bc-an innovative -procurement-solutions- leader/

[Pandora]

I believe that kink should be "https" not "hhps"

[Henrye]

Ooops sorry , thanks for correcting my typo, 

[Gabriel]

Precisely. Alliance collaborative contracts are the new way of contracting large projects. It is a new disruptive way that benefits everyone because it optimizes the needs assessment - design - construction and even operations  md maintenance process. This is because the tools are available today to design a 3D digital model of the projected work and adjust as needed as they are visually

[Henrye]

We most definitely can easily read between the lines and we both can see clearly the light at the end of the tunnel.  It took a lot of energy and effort to solve all stressful situations one at a time at Aecon , at the highest level , and continuing as  we communicate in real time ( favourably to Aecon and it's shareholders)  The "NEW WAY" & "FRESH START

[willyk3]

Gabriel, I enjoy your posts and share your enthusiasm.  Keep it up.  Am hoping that , just like Manulife finally broke out of its ten year slump.....Aecon can finally break out of its funk.  If it doesnt...well I have been a holder for a long time and probably will continue. I am piqued about the possibilities going forward with the nuclear division.  All kinds of possibilities

[Henrye]

I echo your sentiments re Gabriel , and a great question!  Most definitely something big is brewing ( in plural ) !  Very exciting times for Aecon - your loyalty will be rewarded. 

[Gabriel]

Black and MacDonald is a good private company with lots of talent and it is likely the MacDonalds would agree to sell against an ownership in the larger entity and possibly two board seats. They have nicely grown the business for over 100 years and it is likely their interests would safely grow in a more robust fashion in a larger, stronger entity while they play a role in its growth. Our

[Henrye]

Exceptional answer, amazingly (carefully with precision)well crafted meticulous thought process as always. As you re articulated your prior posts ! Clearly everything that you noted and addressed, moving forward is now the NEW WAY, FRESH START , and the ONLY WAY to $80 per share. All the stars are finally aligning!  Great response Gabriel. 

[Lupuslupus]

I'm sure we all appreciate Gabriel's thoughts, but you think you can crawl up his azz any further? im sure the guy would like some privacy

[Henrye]

Lupaslupas Gabriel can easily speak for himself. Rest assured and don't assume that he needs privassy. All is good and let's concentrate on Aecon? Anything positive to contribute? 

[Lupuslupus]

Got in afterit took a nose dive last year it was unjustly punished by the market when they get past legacy contracts that have been a burden, l with backlog they have, the future looks bright holding for a medium to long term

[willyk3]

 Good logic and I have to echo Henris sentiment on your post!  Thanks By all means ...lets get her to 80!.