Aris Mining Corp. T.ARIS

Alternate Symbol(s): CLGDF | N.AMNG.NT.U | T.ARIS.WT.A | ARMN

Metals & Mining Gold

Aris Mining Corporation is a gold producer in the Americas. The Company is engaged in operating two mines with expansions underway in Colombia. The Segovia Operation is located in the Segovia-Remedios mining district in the department of Antioquia, Colombia, approximately 180 kilometers (km) northeast of Medellin. The Segovia Operations comprises four active underground gold mining operations, which include El Silencio, Sandra K, Providencia, and Carla. It has over 11 titles with a total area of 5,335.58 hectares (ha). The Marmato underground gold mine is located on the west side of the town of Marmato, in Marmato municipality of Caldas Department, in the Republic of Colombia, approximately 80 km from Medellin and 200 km northwest of the capital city of Bogota. The Company is also the operator and 51% owner of the Soto Norte Project, which is advancing to develop a new underground gold, silver and copper mine. In Guyana, it is advancing the Toroparu, a gold/copper project.

TSX:ARIS - Post by User

Aris Mining Corp.

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Comment by ts9222on Jul 13, 2017 6:26am

113 Views

Post# 26463555

RE:RE:RE:RE:Record Production!! Another jump to 16k oz per month

Here is a "possible" scenario where they could reach $10m FCF

Relative to Q1:
Q2 has 7k more oz x $1212 ($1250 minus 3%) = $8.48m
Q2 has $40 higher gold price on the 39k oz = $1.56m
($8.48m + $1.56m) = $10.04m minus 40% tax = $6.02m more free cash
+ $1m not using cash to increase stockpile like they did in Q1
+ $2.3m that was put in sinking fund for Q1
+ $1m lower cost from drop in peso (maybe this is higher?)
= $10.3m FCF for Q2

Actual number can vary by a lot obviously.
Maybe there is some income tax deductions/refund. In the conference call they said they pay higher income tax in the first half and expected to have $10m to $12m income tax after deductions in 2017 which is why i said the $6m they paid in Q1 is higher that usual and there is possibility of paying less in later quarters. Corporate tax rate drops to 37% and 33% in the next 2 years and the wealth tax expires after this year, so tax will be dropping in future years.

Cash has been hidden for many quarters now, so the odds are there could eventually be a quarter where some item will cause them to show more cash than normal. We will see.

ts9222 wrote: Yes i know there will be income tax. I said there is a "possibility" that it can reach $10m. I didn't say it is a probability or certainty. There are too many changing variables to make an accurate prediction. A change in capex spending can drastically change the amount of cash available. The timing of VAT refunds can result in big changes in cash. Delaying accounts payable can result in more cash available. Just too many variables that can change a lot.
However, the probability is very very high that free cash flow for Q2 will be much higher than Q1.

Method wrote:

ts9222 wrote: I'm thinking there is a possibility that they could reach $10m free cash flow for Q2, and $0.50 eps (adj) for a $1.40 stock.

That seems aggressive on FCF as income taxes will still need to be paid on earnings. It should be higher as EBITDA should be up substantially from Q1 but all of the increase in EBITDA won't go to FCF.

I hope you are right though!