Aris Mining Corp. T.ARIS

Cash 95 vs 73 end of q2

[Brioche]

So 22 mil more .very  Good 

The fcf will  N O T   be of course 43 mil this Q

All lines following ebitda on the operating account have to be improved . 

If impossible , then from a small shareholder , more cash should be use on buybacks . 

Remains very undervalued of course .

[invest234]

22 mil + 25 mil cash used to buy caldas shares and gold notes + 2.1 mil cash buying back 350k gcm shares = $49 mil fcf in the past gcm counted fcf before using that cash for buybacks. if q4 has similar number as q3 then that is $98 mil fcf just for h2. add h1 fcf then that is $111 mil fcf for this year! huge cash cow! going forward from q3 with $1900 gold, that is around $120 mil fcf per year$$

[invest234]

and really, it is the $49 mil cash that matters, not the $22 mil because they generated $49 mil cash for the quarter and are not required to use that cash to buy stuff in any given q. see, $100 mil cash was not beyond reach, and they didn't pay a lot of tax for q3, otherwise their cash balance would have been lower paying tax.

[invest234]

hmm come to think of it, if this year with lower production and lower gold price already has $111 mil fcf (before buybacks and share investments), then going forward with higher $1900 gold, gcm should have a LOT higher fcf than $120 mil per year.

[cyanide5]

guys i dont understand why anyone here would be OK with only buybacks and not a bigger dividend considering the amount of FCF being generated quarter over quarter.  JAG for instance is a paying a 4% yield and still being able to show increase in cash balance each quarter.  Currently GCM is paying 1% yield or less. I think they could potentially double that and the outlay per quarter

[menoalittle]

>> guys i dont understand why anyone here would be OK with only buybacks not that I agree or am "OK" with the "only buybacks" option (because as I noted previously, there is tremendous value in establishing a pattern of steadily increasing dividends), but given how undervalued the stock is, buybacks are simply a much better and far more effective use of funds

[invest234]

where does it say the gold notes MUST be taken out next april? the notes mature in 2024 not 2021, and the payment schedule is spread out to 2024: https://s21.q4cdn.com/834539576/files/doc_downloads/GCM-Gold-Linked-Notes-Debentures-FAQ-Update-2020-04-30.pdf they have the option to early redeem in april 2021 at 104% of principle, but it does not say they MUST redeem. they have the option to redeem

[menoalittle]

no, not required legally.  however, "must" was/is a statement of a foregone logical conclusion of it being, without a doubt, the absolute safest (& hence, the best) foreseable use of funds to achieve the highest rate of return.  As I see it, anything else would reflect, let's just say, "less than excellent" financial assesment of risk vs. reward

[menoalittle]

to think something other than that might likely be a lack of understanding just how good those notes are and how much they're paying the noteholders (or in other words, how much it is costing the company to keep paying out the gold premiums on them.)

[invest234]

in the serafino interview, he said the gold notes gave something like 16% interest. like i said before, if they find a good cheap project (like juby with 4 million oz gold selling for $20 mil), then that would be a better use of cash. your MUST is not the same as other people's MUST.

[invest234]

they have $95 mil cash end of q3 + ~$45 mil cash q4 = $140 mil. plenty of cash to do a lot of things, including paying down the remaining $30 mil gold notes. if the h1 2021 tax payment is very large, then all they have to do is delay the $30 mil redemption by just one q to q3 where the q3 fcf covers the entire $30 mil and more. they don't have to pay it all down in april. delaying by one q

[Wayned52]

I still maintain we need a 5% yield as long as gold remains above $1800 . If it goes below $1700 or $1600, do a  drop of 1% till we are back to zero if need be . Easy to do . We have to do something to keep investor here once they buy in and long timers should get something for being loyal .

[menoalittle]

dividend aristocrats NEVER cut the dividend.  'nuf said...

[Brioche]

Your maths are correct of course. We will see next month the details . I sincerely would like to see u  right about the numbers . -) .