Post by
MyHoneyPot on Apr 30, 2021 9:09am
ARC - Reality
Clearly when you set you sights on a company that you are already ahead of from a production and CF bases, it doesn't represent Vision or a Plan. ARC is the largest condensate producer by a country mile in Canada and condesate is the most expensive and sought after commodity.
If ARC does nothing they will out perform Tourmaline, if they have zero plan and just produce the production they have, they will have better cash flow and more earnings. So ARC saying i want to be like TOU and ARC is already significantly out performing that company from a production and cf standpoint this is hog wash.
So ARC has a significantly mispriced stock, every analyst agrees, all buy ratings and some people with 14 dollar targets on the stock. Travis Wood of National bank with has a 82% suscess ratio on his picks has a 12.50 target.
So ARC business is broken until the share price trades at a reasonable multiple, what do you think TOU would be trading at if they bought VII generations, a hudge premium. The problem with ARC is the industry has no confidence and they have no plan.
When you can get 5 year bonds at 2.34 percent really is a debt paydown strategy a prudent one, especially when you shareholders are getting over 3% because of your severly depressed stock price.
ARC management is like the small fry entering the big league and they have no game plan and it is reflecting in the stock price.
My guess is that many funds are exiting becasue they will not roll the dice on this managment team. The don't have a plan to get the share price up, therefore they have no currency to do a deal, and they will likely do one anyway and simply dilute the shareholders futher in the company.
IMHO
Comment by
Sugaree on Apr 30, 2021 5:50pm
Looks like the smart money was selling ARX and swapping into POU this week, lol.