ARC Resources Ltd T.ARX

High 19.60 Low 15.77

[MyHoneyPot]

$3.83 a share is how much the stock has swung in the last few days.

3.83/15.77 = 24% volitility from 15.77 to 19.60

                                                         ARX                                      TOU
Currently the Market Cap for         10.88B                                  23.02B 
FCF                                             410 Million                           618 million
  CF                                             759 Million                         1076 million
Shares                                     680.9 Million                           334.9 million

I think the only thing that can be responsibility for the inequality in value, is poor management. The do not know how to represent the value of the company. They have been sitting on their hands for a year hoping to get NE BC projects sanctioned and let a lot of 1/2 cycle, highly economic opportunity sit idle.

ARX needs a new management team.

IMHO

[Sunsurfer12]

above suggests a ~ $10/share ARC discount based on FCF/Mkt Cap...presume something will happen where this closes fast or we get taken out..ok with either

[angelnicky]

when it reaches 10 dollars you may see a shakeup

[Quintessential1]

That is quite the dream you are having.   Try to remember the hedges are at $60,  $3 and $2.50 and already accounted for this year. The lowering of commodity prices negates unrealized losses now. See you at Q2 GLTA Longs

[Volkomm]

Just want to confirm, are you saying the hedging losses for all of 2022 were taken in Q1 report? If so that will make for some nice numbers the rest of the year.  If not, there's no hope in hell we will ever post a profit if this repeats every quarter. 

[northman]

The way it works is: 1 - hedges get mark to market at the end of the quarter. So say oil/gas finished at $100/$7 at the end of the quarter, then the hedging losses for that quarter are the new market value of the hedges minus the old market value. This is an accounting loss. 2 - hedges that expired in the quarter will still be accounted for in the accounting loss, but they will also impact cash

[gonatgasgo]

From time to time, there are some very intelligent posts on ARX BB.  This is one of them.  Thanks Northman.

[Sunsurfer12]

I'm taking the longer view...no on will be able to reassemble this kind of land package and infrastructure..yes hedges sucked..cut mgmt bonus for not layering in over time...other than that...every metric is off the charts and high NG and NGL prices are here to stay for years...this will be flowing obscene amounts of cash for years..so bite our lips on hedges another q or 2 and were into the

[Volkomm]

This has helped a great deal to calm my disdain for this management team. Obviously not great having these hedges but next quarters should show good numbers. Thanks!  Here's to hoping they don't put any more hedges on, or for the love of god at least > $100WTI/$7 Gas. Thanks again that was a great explanation.