Post by
MyHoneyPot on Oct 30, 2022 10:29pm
Ask yourself, is this is real?
Companies like POU and TOU have zero net debt, and small realitive share floats when compared to ARX, yet these are not getting rerated. The only people getting rich here are the management of these companies who
don't have to pay shareholders
don't have to grow production
don't need a strategic plan to expand the business and create value
They only have to buy back shares, and tell the shareholders they are returning all the capital to them. It really is a brain dead approach and management teams hire companies to do their share buybacks, because management do not want to be accountable for doing a poor job.
Really what is the point of holding a company where all your upside is driven by share buybacks because they are going to keep their production flat. How does that make one company better than another, they are just going to take all their FCF and buy their own stock with it.
The reality is that for companies like POU where close to 50% of the stock is owned by insiders, and there is only 70 million shares free trading, it becomes difficult for people to invest in the company. Large funds that need liquidity and the number of the shares is not material as long as the company is valued properly.
So POU has not rerated why? no one can answer this question.
They will not get rerated until they return meaningful capital to share holders in cash.
POU are not focusing their efforts on a magical share count, a debt ceiling, or a measly dividend that management will theoritically keep paying even with negative commodity prices. These are all lies.
When companies start paying out meaningful dividends becasue the management is doing an exceptional jobs the stock will get rerated. Should the stock just trade at a value that is equal to the value of shares management buys a month. What if gas drops back to 3 dollars and ARX can only buy back 1/3 of the stock it is buying today, the share price will collaspe and so will the buybacks.
So where does that leave the shareholder, you need the opportuninity to make hay when the sun shines, and these Spread sheet jockey's tell you they have the answer, they are wrong.
Share buyback are stupid, and if you have 20 years of reserve, and you know you next five year you need to maintain production, then lay everyone off and accelerate the process.
When will a rerating occur for ARX, while when will it balance sheet be as strong as TOU, 3-4 year from now? never?
Spread sheet jockey will promote you company on day like ARX was supporting CPG just a few weeks ago and not they have liquided thier position in CPG
You want to believe in a company based investment thesis that is based on a plan to improve efficiency, grow revenues, and manage the company in a responsible manner.
Management should feel an obligation to pay shareholder cash that reduces their risk of hold the stock and does not add to that risk.
These sharebuybacks without a rerating just make your risk of holding this equity higher, because you are really not getting paid.
IMHO
Comment by
yureja55 on Oct 30, 2022 11:59pm
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by
Trapped on Oct 31, 2022 8:24am
Clown indeed. I'm convinced at this point that some people shouldn't be investing real money because they are too emotional and end up being their own worst enemies. Get help MHP!
Comment by
GunnerG on Oct 31, 2022 1:20pm
Well MHP, I read as far as the three "don't" comments and that was enough. I made over 20% on my TOU divys this past year. Let the good times roll. Arx has nearly completed the latest NCIB and then what will they do with all that FCF. Wipe out the debt, increase the divy in Q4, special divys. Run away doofus, vamous.
Comment by
Trapped on Oct 31, 2022 2:11pm
MHP's a total moron / crybaby. My absolute favorite was when he single-handedly tried to stop the takeover of VII last year. How did that work out for you? Sore loser, anyone? I'm done responding to this attention-seeking troll for now. Thursday's earnings release will reveal everything that needs to be said. Cheers and GLTA ARX longs.
Comment by
MyHoneyPot on Oct 31, 2022 2:28pm
You said it for VII Generations shareholders, this has been a horrible investment. Two of ARX best in the world class projects they can't get sanctioned. Will not see a time any time soon from these projects and project expansions. Arx would be a two dollars stock if it was not for the merger. Terrible destruction of value for VII Generations shareholders. IMHO
Comment by
Trapped on Oct 31, 2022 2:30pm
Well it's a good thing I didn't own any VII, isn't it??? Again, I'm up over 100%, so things are looking pretty sweet from my perspective and they're about to get a lot sweeter. My advice? If you don't like the stock, pi$$ off and don't let the door hit you on the way out...
Comment by
sirmevl on Oct 31, 2022 3:19pm
MHP. I have one question are you short on Arc or not ? if your not short then maybe ask yourself , how come ?
Comment by
Quintessential1 on Oct 31, 2022 4:20pm
Now you're talking my labguage Trapped. See what you do honey truck...you make civil posters uncivil. I personnally think he showed astonishingly controlled restraint. I think you can GFY with a rusty pipe. But that's me...friendly. ;-) Up on a down oil day. Must be a gasser! GLTA longs...easy hold.
Comment by
Trapped on Oct 31, 2022 4:37pm
LOL Quint! And nobody can match your language skills in dealing with MHP, Cheezle and Nicky! Cheers and GLTA ARX longs!
Comment by
Quintessential1 on Oct 31, 2022 8:44pm
The Reprobate Cheese Needle D. Knows how to change posts Wouldn't know a good stock if it sucked his Needle D! GLTA longs