Post by
MyHoneyPot on Jan 12, 2023 9:58am
Kakwa Understated and Misunderstood
Players in the montey with ARX like Liquids Rich Production are (PIPE, NVA, POU, KEL etc. ) The list going on but what is common about them all is that they don't own their own infastructure.
ARC has a big advantage in this Liquids Rich Montney play, not only do they have the very best lands, and a huge land base with likely 25 years of resource. They have access to 5 gas plants, ( Lator, Karr, Cutbank, Gold Creek, Kakwa River)
Together they give are an extreme operation advantage and access to 1.06 BCF of gas process and a ton of Liquids handling. I don't know the exact cost per boe for processing but i would expect that this investment, with water handling and super pads in north of 2 billion in owned infastructure at Kakwa.
Not to mention i am pretty sure they did not build that Gold Creek gas plant, in the wrong place on the planet, there is likely an emerging play up they they just have not got to yet.
So the mid cap darling exploiting the Montney will never have the economics and the opportunity that ARX has will all this infastructure and ENG that has been put into place.
KAKWA is Unique and cannot be replicated, an opportunity of a life time and needs to be seized and exploited. No one in the future will be allowed to pour the capital that was put into Kakwa to make it the Tier1 condensate play likely in the world.
The liquids rich production that ARX has at Kakwa likely has a 5 dollar a boe advantage from its competators because of the owned/operated infastructure. Further optimization although great is really splitting hairs at this point.
ARX Management needs to realize they are no longer a gas company with a little liquids, they are a liquids company 40% with associated gas, because that is where all the big money will come from.
ARX evaluation is broken and their market cap should be competative with TOU.
IMHO
Comment by
PabloLafortune on Jan 12, 2023 11:12am
ARX Oil/conde < 20% hedged for 2023. If GS is right - WTI $110 in Q3 - = $$$. That said, I've yet to figure out what was the point of this merger to begin with? Might be why its undervalued IMO.
Comment by
GunnerG on May 08, 2023 9:09am
What has changed since Jan 2023 when the WACKADO thought it was a great company. Order now MHP and I don't mean stocks.