RE:Antibe The strength of the results today were truly phenomenal. Independent of the number of ulcers in the Naproxen group, having only 3 volunteers with ulceration in the ATB-346 group is INCREDIBLE. This is hands down better than every NSAID on the market.
If 250 mg of ATB-346 can show better rates of pain suppresion (superior to Naproxen), ATB-346 will take over the entire global NSAID market.
The small study last summer showed superiority to Naproxen, however this is absolutely not necessary. If ATB-346 (Naproxen + Hydrogen Sulfide) is as good as Naproxen (non-inferior) with better GI safety, hands down ATB-346 will be positioned to be the #1 NSAID in the world very soon.
ATB-346 + ATB-352 + ATB-340 = $20 B market
By fourth quarter 2018, Antibe looks to be heading towards a $1 B valuation or a sale very close to it.
Hold tight, could be a 10 bagger from today's valuation and SP in less than 12 months by just waiting. BIg pharma will be ALL over this with a bidding war highly likely. Today's results (only 3 people with ulcers in the ATB-346 group!!) are SUPER strong. A sale may happen even before the next trial just SOLELY on the strength of the GI safety profile and the anticipated marketshare ATB-346 and Antibe's hydrogen sulfide drug pipeline will take over.
Good luck to all!
mstrmnd wrote: My thoughts on Antibe Therapeutics:
#1. This company has exceptionally positioned itself to make a huge dent in the $11 B NSAID market with ATB-346. If it is able to confirm better GI safety, it will be superior to most, if not ALL NSAIDS on the market. Keep in mind ATB-346 is Naproxen + Hydrogen Sulfide. Even prior to any further results, if these results are positive, in it of itself, it would suggest a huge market share opportunity for Antibe. Even the claim to one over the next few months will create an interesting story for Antibe that will undoubtedly get the attention of big pharma.
#2. The decision to confirm GI safety first, was a great decision.
Based on mouse models, ATB-346 (and more specifically hydrogen sulfide) appeared to consistently demonstrate a better GI safety profile. If this is reproducible and significantly different than naproxen in humans, not only would they be able to lay claim and superiority to the one of the worst side of effects of NSAIDS, they are doing so in manner that is of minimal risk to Antibe, as GI safety appears to be one of ATB-346's strength and the selective position of this trial over others was a great decision. The trials are positioned to capture this market share opportunity.
Expected results:
240 Volunteers
120 in the Naproxen 500 mg twice a day x 14 days group
120 in the ATB-346 (Naproxen + Hydrogen Sulfide) 250 mg once a day x 14 days group
Standard rates in literature - Naproxen 500 mg twice a day will cause endoscopic confirmed ulceration in 20% of volunteers (somtimes up to 25%) - therefore ulceration is expected in 24 volunteers. Depending on the completion rate, drop out rate, etc, the number of volunteers with ulcers in the Naproxen group will be less than 24.
x number of volunteers will have ulceration with ATB-346.
If x is if significnatly lower than naproxen then x will = % x 11 B NSAID market.
Cudos to the Antibe team on an excellent clinical trials strategy. I just hope that the trial was powered enough to reach statistical signifance (meaning enough volunteers in the trial to show that the ATB-346 causes "significantly" less ulceration than Naproxen).
#3. ATB-346 postive results will validate the Hydrogen-Sulfide based therapeutics pipeline of Antibe. These trial results will position Antibe to immediately increase its valuation and market share by going into additional markets with ATB-352 (ketoprofen (acute pain) - competitor to decrease opioid use) and ATB-340 (aspirin - competitor to likely baby 81 mg aspirin market) the additional market share opportunity for Antibe is TRULY tremendous.
#4. The team.
This Antibe team is phenomenal. They are supported by a strong scientific background through the years of reserach by Dr. Wallace. The board is outstanding and I'm excited to see Mr. Dan Legault's ability to capitalize on the marketshare opportunity for Antibe shareholders with positive results for ATB-346.
#5. The value.
It's all in the market share. $11 B NSAID + $x B pain (opioid alternative) + $x B aspirin.
What % of the market can a GI safe NSAID (ATB-346) take? Considering its the #1 sold NSAID (Naproxen) in the market already, ATB-346 (Naproxen + Hydrogen Sulfide) will take over a HUGE chunk of the market.
Lastly, big pharma should definitely pay close attention. Even if the trial does not achieve statistical significance, if the results are extrapolated and the trial is expanded (for example - instead of 240 volunteers, 1200 volunteers), this will STILL be a safer NSAID than every other NSAID in the market. And it will STILL take over the marketshare - so even in the event of neutral trial results, big pharma will surely extrapolate the trial results, assess the likelihood of success with a bigger trial, look at the marketshare opportunity with ATB-346 and its hydrogen sulfide pipeline and likely still see that this is STILL a multi-billion dollar marketshare opporutnity.
Even with positive results, I am getting ready to hold for a big pharma buy-out. Just my two cents, fingers crossed for everyone on this board. Good luck to all tomorrow.
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Any speculation on what the market cap will be post positive results for Antibe?