RE:I'm here for the long haul The decline is due to 3 things, as I've said numerous times.
Pot stocks are HOOOOOOT and lots of people that play penny biostocks play pot stocks as well. people are selling to make money over there, and in october/november when the hype has died down and a correction is occuring I have no doubt they'll come back.
Timing of the catalysts... we got 2 trial starts and one trial readout before the end of the fall, guaranteed. Those are decent catalysts but the big money one will be in spring time. People will start to come back I'm guessing in a couple months to get a good price and wait it out but money can be made elsewhere until then
Warrants... still a bit of warrants left, however the october 31c warrants are out of the money right now so I predict we will get a push within the next 6 weeks for people to unload their warrants. This 27c price right now is very enticing if you think about it. There's millions of warrants at 31c still, with that number I'm guessing there's some larger entities who have bigger amounts and they for sure will want to capitalize on them. There's also some 22c warrants in the money expirring in december so we could be getting some sell pressure from those.
Granted, with the new korea deal atb346 is valued at 650 MILLION DOLLARS which is quite incredible.
That's a company worth hundreds of millions of dollars valuing our asset at this point in the game with the risk that is still to come with the phase 2 trials at 650m!!!
Once the next trial comes and completely (in my mind) de-risks the drug this number will be even higher. I was thinking ATB346 would pull in a valuation of about 500 million when we got our large deal but obviously this was way under, I wouldnt be surprised if the deal after the dose ranging study reaches 900M or even higher.
If we take even 50% of the deal value as tangible value to mkap we get a market cap of 450M based only on ATB346 alone... a share price of almost $2.
These numbers are completly realistic. I dont expect the company value to reflect all of the deal we get as it needs to pass phase 3 and FDA but with a large partner and a smaller dose (almost guarantee we will end up at 150mg based on the data we have so far) I'd think the phase 3 trials are a done deal and FDA approval is extremely likely.
The price right now reflects absolutely none of the inherent value of the company or its intellectual assets.. it's merely a chess game of price based on waiting and people's bets that they'll be able to get in cheaper down the road.