RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Even the company put this in writing:
Not seeing the risk here. Once again, Pengrowth firesale got them 740mil-purely thermal at slightly more than 20k/day at similar netbacks to ATH's thermal division. The curtailments and maintanance dropped this division's production to roughly 25k/day in the last quarter but this should bounce back to 30k/day. So, 50% higher production(once again, similar netbacks) would logically equate to a (firesale) value of 1.1 billion. Even if you assume a current valuation of 480mil for ath's light oil division (Murphy's 50% purchase price....at a time of $40WTI), the total current value would be 1.59 bil + cash (250 million ignoring set-asides) - debt of 600 mil = 1.24 billion or 2.37CAD/share.
If ATH mgmt does manage to blow the 250 million in cash leading up to 2022 repayment, the worst case scenario at firesale prices (assuming same debt level) would equate to a share price of 1.90.
The value was proven and the stock basically de-risked following the pengrowth sale. Without debt payments and the overpayed mgmt, this company is a cash cow.