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Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

Alternate Symbol(s):  ATHOF

Athabasca Oil Corporation (AOC) is a Canadian energy company with a focused strategy on the development of thermal and light oil assets. AOC’s segments include Light Oil and Thermal Oil. The Thermal Oil segment includes the Company’s assets, liabilities and operating results for the exploration, development and production of bitumen from sand and carbonate rock formations located in the Athabasca region of Northern Alberta. It also consists of two operating oil sands steam assisted gravity drainage projects and a resource base of exploration areas in the Athabasca region of northeastern Alberta. The Light Oil segment includes its assets, liabilities and operating results for the exploration, development and production of light crude oil and medium crude oil, tight oil and conventional natural gas. Its Light Oil segment consists exclusively of the Duvernay in the Greater Kaybob area with about 155,000 gross acres across Kaybob West, Kaybob North, Kaybob East and Two Creeks.


TSX:ATH - Post by User

Post by elduckyon Apr 21, 2022 1:45pm
267 Views
Post# 34621028

First time I've posted another stock here, similar to ATH

First time I've posted another stock here, similar to ATHJust straight to the chase, the stock is Corsa Coal, CSO. I don't want to clutter the board, but this is the best stock I've seen since ATH, and it's so similar in terms of deep value, that the kinds of people who like ATH, will like this as well. It has the characterisitics that I've liked about ATH that had me averaging down more and more and more over the last 5 years. 

I love hated stocks in hated industries, being given away by investors not understanding the math and the potential. Add marginal management that didn't unlock value in the past but is being bailed out by the market for energy. In that setting, the biggest gains come from the worst companies. That's how you go from 11 cents to $2.70. 

There are lots of details I could share, but to keep it short, only really two details that matter here. (1) They should have free cash flow at least 100% FCF this year, using very conservative assumptions. That's 100% FCF. They arguably will exceed 200% FCF, we shall see what contracts they signed in their Q1 reporting. With less conservative and more realistic assumptions I expect to see between 30 - 40 cents, for just the quarter, on an 80 cent stock.

(2) The stock is being held down because someone is unloading without any care about the value. A private equity firm distributed 45% of the shares in December to the partners of the firm. Some of them are selling, and unconcerned with the price; it's on auto pilot set to 1-2 cents above some sort of moving average. You could put in an order for a million shares and it will get filled if find their target sell price at the time. So they've capped the price; peers are up 300% to 800% on the year. It is only up 100% because of this indiscriminate selling. Whenever this is done, and it should be nearing its end, it should pop hard.

Do your own DD, there are some good links at investors village, some on the CSO board here. It's a tiny company, risky obviously, but I think tremendous potential that I wanted to share. I own a lot, obviously. 
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