Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

Poised to Outperform

[Helloworld]

With Eric selling 50 million shares since making ATH his top pick (that equates to over 1 million shares per trading day downward pressure on prices) and with the downward dump by Friday retail the stock has severely lagged peers. At 70 WTI they are estimating FCF of their entire market cap in three years. No other company comes close to that. Other discounted stocks (OBE, IPO and SGY) who used to be comparable have recently skyrocketed There is the general consensus that the stock has lagged due to poor hedges which is true, but without hedges this is the most leveraged company to rising oil prices so hedges actually make leverage in 2022 comparable to most similar market cap peers. As year goes on and hedges roll off it will only becomes more attractive going into 2023. The name does have risk at lower oil prices but if oil stays over 70 which all macros point to there is no better name today. You only have to look at Nuttals track record for sell offs / dont buy last year (NVA and BTE) to see he suppresses stock price when he sells off and it skyrockets after he is out. Not sure what will happen Monday or Tuesday but over the next three to six months I suspect it will outperform anything in his portfolio.

[cahclick]

I agree. It must be difficult for a fund manager to buy and sell relatively small names without causing short term chaos as they enter and exit any given oil name. I don't care too much about Eric's individual picks but give him credit for being the sector's biggest cheerleader in Canada. That helps all of us trying to make a buck here as he draws in capital. The refi deal was not

[pantano33]

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