RE:AVK vs WAFI would argue that WAF is fairly valued and that AVK is undervalued, relatively speaking.
Let's compare using Doug Casey's 8Ps:
1: People
Chairman of WAF is Mark Connelly, who has had a series of successes, with the last one being the sale of Papillion’s Fekola project (in Mali) to B2Gold for US$570 million. Winning management teams usually carry a premium valuation and usually have better access to capital because they made investors money before and are likely to do it again. They often have access to better people as well.
I'm not certain what AVK's management teams last success was. I won't hold that against them, but it doesn't get them any extra points.
Win for WAF
2: Property
Both have good properties and good geology - AVK's is higher grade and bigger and twice the ounces - win for AVK.
AVK’s DFS is done with incredible economics (high NPV, high IRR, etc). WAF is working on theirs, which I can’t see being as good as AVK’s given the difference in grade. Win for AVK.
AVK is also shovel ready with ESIA in hand, so another win for AVK. WAF is working on theirs.
3: Phinancing
WAF has about US$15 million (I'm guessing following the equity raise and repayment of debt.)
AVK has about $5 million in cash as at end of Q2, which means it is less now. If they call the warrants, or ask investors to exercise, about US$10 million would be the proceeds.
I think this continues to be a problem for new investors to AVK because they think the company is broke and continues to hurt the optics of their balance sheet condition. If AVK would call the warrants this would be a tie, in my opinion.
4: Paper
AVK has Elliott as a major shareholder plus some other institutions that own more than 70% according to their presentation. CEO's family owns 12%, which is good for shareholders, I think. Retail owns less than 30%.
WAF has a wide number of retail shareholders and institutions.
In a bull market, this is bullish for WAF because of the wide ownership. In a bear market, this is bullish for AVK because there are few sellers when the tree gets shaken.
This is probably a slight win for WAF under the current market conditions.
5: Promotion
WAF is running a well-executed classic Australian promotion because of Mark Connelly. Plus, ongoing drill program that provides for a steady flow of news. They are also running around talking about an "ultra high-grade" zone, which gets everyone’s attention.
AVK only recently got a new person on the promotion front, but with no drill program (only a rumor of one), there is nothing sensational to talk about other than a potential take out.
WAF clearly winning on this front, but easy for AVK to fix with a drill program at Kalanako, an "ultra high-grade" satellite target that is 3km from the main pit. Last year, AVK had a drill program and was successful in promoting in crappy bear market with holes of 100 g/t over 10m.
6: Politics
AVK in Mali and WAF in Burkina Faso. Both in West Africa and big gold producing nations. Lots of projects being advanced to production in both countries, so this is a tie.
7: Push
What is going to push these stocks higher? Catalysts (outside of gold price)
WAF: Ongoing drill program with "ultra high-grade" promote. New mineral resource in Q4, DFS in Q4. Take out also in the cards as Mark Connelly always sells.
AVK: Project financing ... really need a drill program or the announcement of management team additions that investors know and trust. Take out is also in the cards.
WAF clearly winning on this one, for now.
8: Price
AVK's last equity raise was at 27 cents (27 cent share and a 1-cent half warrant), so basically many investors selling at today's price of 27 cents are breaking even, at best. Investors are up about 50% from January lows (but up 100 - 200% from two years ago).
WAF last equity issue at 30 cents. Investors are up about 5X since the January lows (and up 100% since two years ago).
AVK represents better value, in my opinion, and is clearly on sale. Although price and value aren’t the same thing and are often disconnected.
In summary, WAF and AVK have a lot in come, but WAF has management advantages, cash on the balance sheet, active promotion, and a steady flow of news to push the stock price higher.
AVK can easily re-balance this relative valuation by calling the warrants and using the proceeds to financing a drill program of an “ultra high-grade” satellite target.