RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:TJ AND SCROOGE ARE RIGHTDZtrader wrote:
Its just people that ask or seek credit or pats on the back typically suffer from low self esteem. Personally I could care less, you just seem to seek this accreditation. But as usual when you are wrong you avoid or change the subject like you just did again.
First sentance of second paragraph you suggest "cuts", there has been but one cut thus far and it was for 25 bips, not going to move the needle. In any event not sure what you are suggesting. I have long advocated that rate cuts are but one thing, helpful yes but not the be all and end all for this sector. I got the memo, it is you that is off a bit here. I fully expect Canada to enter into recession imminently if they aren't already in one, again not rocket science, but pat yourself on the back if you think you made newsworthy commentary to this regard, spoiler alert, most of the population are ahead of you on this already.
As for the inverted yeild curve, it is a "predictor" of recession, a reasonable one at that. Only thing is, (speaking of the U.S.) it seems to have missed the mark, at least for now. When the U.S. does enter recession it might just have been the longest the curve has been inverted prior to a recession and therefor not the best predictor this time. I could be wrong on this but am sure you will update the accuracy or lack of. In any event, I am not sure what your point is. I own stock other than reits. I like reits here. I added Granite to my portfolio today. Nothing happens overnight. If it pulls in yet, so be it, I might add more. I think its nearer to the end of '25 before this sector pulls out but by then, you will not be enjoying these prices. In the mean time, I collect and wait and that's fine by me. As I noted before, you will wait until the stars and moons align and will be "quite late" to the party, kind of like the
Fed's data dependancy, I get it, but thats lagging, just like you.
I know you are going to respond and probably start with more nonsense, not interested and like I said before, I don't take you too seriously, in particular after your zinger of rate cuts are not accomodative. Good luck to you anyways.
What are you talking about? The inverted yield curve is "reasonable" at predicting a recession? It has an almost perfect track record. Saying that it's reasonable at predicting recessions is undermining the power and reliability of this indicator. Then you go on to say, it seems to have missed the mark at least for now. First of all, we were late at raising
rates which is why Fed funds peaked a year after the 10's 2's inverted. During the GFC it took almost a year and a half for the recession to begin after peak rates. So far it hasn't been a year since since Jerome Powell last raised interest rates. Second of all, there are several prominent Economist that are saying the US has been in a recession since October 2023. The unemployment is already 60 bps higher than its lows and this has NEVER occurred unless the US economy was already in a recession.The 10 year, 3 month curve has a perfect track record at predicting a recession and it's been inverted since October 2022. Not bad for being just "reasonable" at predicting recessions. Last point, every single time there are revisions, it points to an economy that is getting weaker and NOT stronger. These revisions can take a year to play out and you'll notice the NFP is constantly revising their data because of the flawed birth/death model that it uses to fudge these numbers. Next time, please educate yourself before you spew nonsense about the economy you know nothing about.