Artis Real Estate Investment Pref Shs Series E T.AX.PR.E

Constructive commentary coming out of ECB forum

[DZtrader]

So I just tuned into some commentary coming out of the ECB forum. Interesting timing given what I had posted yesterday. I will include a clip from an interview with Chicago Fed Head Austan Goolsbee. Yesterday I had posted about the "inflation of things" almost at target, and went on to suggest that if you backed out the methodology used in the OER (owner's equivalent rent) that for all intents and purpsoses we would be at target. Of course it was quickly followed by a cheap comment from the peanut gallery and seconded by part two of the peanut gallery (although all the same peanut gallery). Goolsbee actually alluded to the fact that the methodology they use in the OER is lagging, as I noted. He went on to suggest that it appears as though it should take a reasonably nice decline into the second half, something I had also noted in my last commentary as was outlined at about the last paragraph of the attached link. He then went on to allude to the fact that had they actually calculated this housing data the same way in which the EU does that WE WOULD ALREADY BE AT TARGET. He actually says this in the attached clip. So to reiterate, the indexes used to calculate falling rents and units as noted in yesterday's linked article is set to show a significant reduction in rental rates which will reflect in upcoming CPI data, that was also confirmed by Goolsbee today. And as I tried noting in my last post that U.S. may be alone in using the somewhat ridiculous OER to calculate housing inflation and thus my commentary of same.

On another note, with regards to another post, in which I had suggested the rise in yeilds IMHO (and others) was the increased odds of a Trump presidency. To be honest I have been seeing and hearing this in so many circles now that it would appear to be the actual consensus. Sara Eisen of CNBC while interviewing Powel and Lagard actually opened her commentary suggesting the rise in yeilds was premised on the increase possibility of a Trump presidency, does this mean it has to be that, well probably not but if most are saying this then there just may be a strong liklihood.

In closing, when I referenced perhaps the only thing holding the Fed back from cutting was the out of control government spending. Nary ANY Fed official to even mumble a word about it, Powel actually came out and almost threw down the gauntlet and outright said it had to stop. I am not sure I have ever heard a Fed head call out the government. The read into this is, THE FED WANTS TO CUT and the government spending is causing hesitancy. The other juggling act is if Trump were to win, it is viewed by many that his policies would in fact be inflationary and the last thing the Fed wants to do is to cut then have to raise again in the near term.

I think they may well go come September, I know they also well want to.

I am doing the work of two young men on my docks, and am longing for my little Roti stand in Kuala. That won't happen till fall but in the mean time, I will be in the "Big Smoke in about a week, maybe see you on a patio.

Stay good,

DZ

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/07/02/chicago-fed-president-austan-goolsbee-i-do-see-some-warnings-signs-from-the-real-economy.html