RE:Value Jackroy......below is an earlier post of mine re valuation....there are also posts on 2014 exit production and commensrate cash flows that permit valuation on cash flow basis
2013 year end reserves
At the end of 2012 ,Cardium P&P reserves are 13.3 million barrels of oil equivalent representing 75 per cent of total P&P reserves volumes and 90 per cent of total P&P reserves value on a pretax 10-per-cent net present value basis.
Total 2P reserves were 17.7 mmboe.
Oil and NGL represent a larger proportion of total reserves: 39 per cent of the company's proved developed producing reserves, 43 per cent of TP reserves and 48 per cent of P&P reserves .
. Cardium properties represent 96 per cent of the company's P&P oil and NGL reserves and 55 per cent of the company's P&P natural gas reserves (primarily solution gas).
Anderson's total P&P pretax NPV 10 reserves value at Dec. 31, 2012, was $224.8-million.
At that time, 232 additional gross (148 net) Cardium drilling locations (97 per cent company operated) had been identified of which only 32 per cent on a net basis are recognized as P&P locations in the GLJ report.
The company's average oil price was $83.21 per barrel for the year.
During 2013, AXL sold about 33 % of its producing assets to eliminate bank debt.
No reserves were given, so I assume that sales represented reserve losses.
This would reduce 2P reserves to about 12 mmboe.
4.3 net Cardium wells were drilled in 2013, with IP of 455 boe/day.
This would represent about 2 million barrels of Cardium added.
Remove 0.9 mmboe for 2013 prtoduction.
The net result would be about 13 mmboe at the end of 2013.
The average valuation metric will increase as all of the additions were the much more valuable Cardium.
The 10 % discounted NPV ( Net Present Value ) would be about $185 million or just over $1 per share.
Its possible that it will be higher than this, as a 7 well Cardium program began in Nov/13 which might be included in 2013 reserves ( certainy not all ) and gas prices are much higher than last year.
Say $200 million topside at exit 2013.
11 net cardium wells will be drilled leading up to 2014 2P reserves.
These should add about 4.5 million barrels net of 2014 average production.
AXL had 1.4 mmcf of gas shut in in late 2013.
These are probably now producing.
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