RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:All good for nowPablo, I think that what you're seeing is
REAL confidence in their Backlog right now. Remember how things work with Backlog. Once you get the deposits, you have to be prudent with them. You have to put aside the Inventory money, to purchase the needed product parts. There is of course 15% to 20% of the deposit that is useable for other things. But in generally it has to be managed properly. The other part of the equation is that Management has a clear view 2 years ahead on that Backlog. They signed those deals with escalations as well, to cover their azz for future Inflation on the parts etc.. I could go on here as you know, about the positive nature of the new deals, but it's enough to get you thinking on my point here.
They're also out of the spending cycle as you know. So CAPEX is under control here. So as you can see from the above paragraph, that Managment has a clear eye-view for 2 years. That's a huge benefit. That is exactly why they are confident for 2 years ahead. If they Managed deposits well? Which I have no doubt they did. Because if they didn't they're fk. Then they have a clear view of FCF on Revs, and the amount of LTD repayment they can handle going forward.
This again is where they get their confidence. No where else. Now, if Martel has a deal for an order etc.. Then that's even an extra plus for the company.
Right now I just think that the clarity for the next 2 years on Backlog has been the catalyst for this exuberance. Plus of course the company is well run by EM and Bart D. So I'm relaxed as to why the predictions. I expected this Financial outcome, by just simply plugging in the growth from 2021 to 2023 for FCF. The other aspect is, is that they are very careful not to oversell the Financial parts of the Balance Sheet. They have to take care of the FCF portion, and protect it with some DIVERSIFICATION as well. In the last post to you, I was telling you that they have diversified within the BJ pure play division they're in. They're starting defense, Certified PO, Service (don't underestimate the Service part). Service alone will get Business Jet buyers to buy the OEM's product. They'll pay the higher price, but they know their product is Serviced with the OEM's parts, and with the OEM's know how. The buyer has the peace of mond feeling. I get the hesitency for people not to want to jump with 2 feet here on the Bomber wagon. We've been burned. Me twice. I just think that when a company is run by idiots there is a lot of room for improvement. So, now that the "idiot heir" (PB) is gone and proffessionals are in charge of the PURSE. I'm satisfied. Yes I'm with you too. That we still have have to keep our eyes on that purse going forward.
PabloLafortune wrote: You know 859, i hadn't posted here for a while but somebody threw this Brennan HR guy under the bus so I chimed in because I knew different that he was the only one who put his own money in (circa 2017). So when I was going thru the SEDI report, I saw all those solius capital transactions by officers (that's the scheme where management was exercising in the money options if you recall) and it reminded me of the way they were..., holy moly what a cluster it was then. They got rid of everything except business jets yes but they also brought in new management and those 2 decisions go hand in hand.
Also, I'm speculating out of my you know what of course but it has dawned on me that Martel could have some not backlog backlog ie potential orders of some sort in his backpocket. Which is a good thing of course. Because how else are they so confident?