Bombardier Inc. T.BBD.A

13 trading days left before ER

[trademorestock]

I'm expecting good earnings based on 37 deliveries

[stockitnow]

Same.  I think aftermarket sales and services will be another big revenue generator.  There are alot of bombardier aircraft which need regular services and upgrades.

[BBDB859]

Based on the 37 deliveries can anyone give us a breakdown on the amount of large and medium aircraft sold for Q2? So we can guesstimate on the Revs.

[MyNameIsNobody]

Q2 has 18 mid-sized and 19 large-sized. Data for the estimate: Q2-2023 had 15 mid and 14 large - (51.7%-48.3%) for an average of 42.66M$  per aircraft  Q3 2023 had 16 mid and 15 large - (51.5-48.5%) for an average of 46.2M$ per aircraft Q4 2023 had 24 mid and 32 large - (43%-57%)for an average of 45.9M$ per aircraft  Q1 2024 had 12 mid and 8 large - (60%-40%) for an

[BBDB859]

Thanks Nobody. That sounds about the right neighborhood. I have it similar with higher Service Revs at $500M. I'm closer $2.03B. Hope the count is 37 deliveries and not closer to 30 like the last Q surprise.

[BBDB859]

If we delivered 37 planes and NOT say 31 like the last Quarter reduction? Then we should have an EBITDA of, aprox: $355M and an EBIT of aprox; $185M. Then, given the way it's going so far this year. For the full year of 2024  We should have around $1.45B in EBITDA for all of 2024 "         "        "       

[Shamhorish]

BBDB, AGREE EXCPET, i truly beleive that if bbd will do share split, it should not be before acheiving 2025 target and if there will be share price split, it should not be before and when share price reach $134 or mre and should not exceed exceed 2 for one  must keep share price above $70, keep many clowns away

[BBDB859]

Possibly 2 to 1. That would increase our float to only 190M. Where as, with a 3 to 1 we don't need too many splits going forward. Watch Dollarama. We could go down to $50 from $150. They go down to $30 even on splits. This will only increase the float to about 280M. And we'll still be ok. $50 is more affordable for even the poorer investors. But the key is the steady company's +FCF

[johnney]

Quote: Agree a 3 to 1, from $150, would make sense! $50 would give a chance for others investors! Right, we have an example with Dollaramma! Maybe and probably as Sham says, will probably wait for the company to reach their goals in 2025, ending 2025!

[BBDB859]

Even apple brings their shares down to the 50's depending on the splits. Nothing wrong with that share price range. The higher share price, won't stop shorting IMHO. 

[glory7]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[stock4life48]

so assuming we have 37 deliveries @ an average of $43M per equals $1.591B.  Add in services and I am going to take RBC forecast of $479M (they don't expect it to break $500M before Q4/24) = total revenue of $2.07B Average EBITDA margin in 2023 was 15.3%, Q1/24 was 16.2% (RBC project an average for 2024 of 15.6%).  Assuming the average of 15.6% = $323M EBITDA.  I'll put

[BBDB859]

Nice job Stock4. Assuming that Bombardier predicted 150 to 155 for 2024, then to get to 160 units, is just common sense. As I said on the post that the delivery units depends totally on demand and orders on the Backlog. We haven't finished 2024 and Q1 was a banner Quarter for B/B ratio. So to get to 160 units is a joke. They're not going to reduce production or increase by too much going

[stock4life48]

Well if you listen to either Q1 ER or Investors Day they also reiterate they want to keep production around 150 going forward.   I'll admit your numbers are possible, but on JESUS they are extreme and max in a perfect world.  I think its best to set realistic numbers, and if we beat them great, otherwise we will be in for a serious let down and the stock will crash and burn

[johnney]

Quote: Q2 ER will bust it out, you say, hope the strike will be over by then, cause there will be a hole somewhere, in what period, I don't know, but there will be! Gita!

[BBDB859]

You're new here obviously. I listen to all ER'S. I am a bull, or optimistic as you say. Production increases, and maybe even decreases will depend on demand. We'll just have to wait and see, what 2024/5 brings in backlog or orders. It's the Bombers job to under promise, and over deliver. I think they'll over deliver for 2024 even with the strike. It's not my job to

[stock4life48]

I suggest you listen again to the Investor Day presentation.  also review previous production forecasts and compare that to actual numbers, you will find they are all very close to reality.  2023 was 138 and they delivered 138, 2022 was "greater than 120" and they delivered 123.  Never been a year where its an extra 10 I think we agree to disagree I am Canadian, but with

[johnney]

  Thanks for those numbers! I presume they will do ok for Q2!