Bombardier Inc. T.BBD.A

Alternate Symbol(s): BDRXF | BDRAF | BDRBF | BOMBF | T.BBD.B | T.BBD.P.B | T.BBD.P.C | T.BBD.P.D | BDRPF

Industrials Aerospace & Defense

Bombardier Inc. is focused on designing, manufacturing, and servicing business jets. The Company has a fleet of approximately 5,000 aircraft in service with a wide variety of multinational corporations, charter and fractional ownership providers, governments, and private individuals. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets two families of business jets (Challenger and Global), spanning from the mid-size to large categories. The Company also provides aftermarket support for both of these aircraft, as well as for the Learjet family of aircraft. The Company's robust customer support network services the Learjet, Challenger, and Global families of aircraft, and includes facilities in strategic locations in the United States and Canada, as well as in the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Switzerland, Italy, Austria, The United Arab Emirates, Singapore, China and Australia. Its jets include Challenger 300, Challenger 350, Challenger 3500, Global 5000, Global 5500, Global 6000.

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Bombardier Inc.

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Comment by mrsly0on Jan 10, 2019 12:51pm

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Post# 29213145

RE:A220 Deliveries of for 2018

where do you get the a220 53% increase? i don't see that in the leeham paper.
good luck

bbdbinvestor145 wrote:
I was reading an article this morning from Leeman's that was comparing Airbus's deliveries to Boeing's. Here it is bellow, with some info regardieng the CSeries.

Single Aisle

"Airbus has a 12% advantage in Single Aisle deliveries if we count the segment from 100 seats upwards. This is because the A220 is included since 1 July. Total CSeries/A220 deliveries were 33 for 2018, but the 13 delivered before 1^st of July are counted as Bombardier deliveries.

If the Boeing Joint Venture with Embraer happens during 2019 it gets more leveled again but the A220 will be further in its ramp than the Embraer E190/195-E2 during 2019, and there are not many deliveries of E190/195 classic."

What I got out of this.

Airbus has produced 20 planes in the second half of the year compared to 13 for Bombardier for the first half. Which says a lot for the Airbus re-tooling of the Mirabel plant.

Airbus has increased production by a whopping 53% at Mirabel. That's nothing to sneeze at.

The other item is that we can expect about 35 from Mirabel and another 30 from Alabama next year. So total of 65 for 2020.

If they can slowly raise that to 80 planes, for 2021 and 100 for 2022. The JV will be producing a good chunk of change from 2021 to 2025.

Say 80 for 2021 from both plants.

80 x $6 mill./ plane profit = $480 mill./year

$480 x 5 years = $2.4 billion

$2.4 billion x34% + 2% the Bomber share = $860 million + another $140 million between 2019 and 2020 = $1 billion from the SCALP JV.

Remember this is for 5 years plus say another $300 billion from Aeorstructures and suddenly there is $1.3 to $1.5 billion from the the JV

Taking this into account.

If the profit of the JV is $2.4 billion yearly? Then what is the value of the program?

I say 4x. So 4 x $2.4 = $10 billion give or take.

$10 billion x 34% = $3.4 billion buy out for Bombardier.

$3.4 billion from the JV buyout in 2025. Plus $1.3 billion from the profits of the program till 2025, = $4.7 billion

Not Bad.

$4.7 billion to throw at the DEBT.

Plus $800 million every year from 2020 to 2025 from BT, Aerostructures, BBA, according to guidence by the Bomber.

Suddenly we have $800 mill x 6 = $4.8 billion of our own generated from there.

Well $4.7 from the CSeries + $4.8 from the Bomber's other programs.

WOW $9.5 billion.

What's the debt?

NO DEBT. It's been PAID.

Remember we still have Caisse.

I say. Pay off Caisse ASAP, when the programs set in place right now, are running in FULL THROTTLE. Their take is 9% every year from BT. Take them out at the end of 2020. This give the Bomber some time, to build up the reserves.

Enjoy your day folks. Sorry for the rough math. Maybe Retired can sharpen the math up a little bit better. But that's all the information we have to go by.

We're looking good.

Cheers
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