bbdbinvestor145 wrote: Hey Mrsly0:
It's easy to calculate. Leehman's article said that Airbus rolled out 20 A200's in the second half of 2018, where as Bombardier rolled out 13 in the first half of 2018. This tells me that Airbus knows what they're doing. Plus they'll find a way to increase production in Mirabel by re-designing this facility. Which I understand they've done quite a bit of it already, and are doing even more. I'm sure they'll expand the facility to spit out 60 yearly.
That's 53% more than Bombardier's total in half the year. Airbus put out 20 in that time frame. More than one and a half times the Bombers total.
As for the profit
Alabama will probably spit out 60 to equal 120 for the year.
I ommited 2019 in SCALP profits because the lift is not that strong. There is some profit from Mirabel, but still growing pains from ramp up in Mirabel expansion. Alabama won't get going till 2020 anyways. If Airbus can spit out 20 to 30 planes Alabama for 2020. I'll be happy.
So 80 planes instead of 120 annually seemed to be a good number to produce between both facilities. This takes into account the delays on deliveries. Remember that the firm orders (500) don't have to be delivered 120/ year. 80 a year is better clip. This gives other Airlines a chance to start putting in some more firm orders from now till then. Plus they have a chance to see the planes flying in the US and then they jump in to start ordering. So a slower clip is better.
This slower clip also gives the Business Evaluation (the fair market value equation) a chance to catch up. If they deliver more annually? Then the business will profit more and the evaluation of the buyout will be higher. This I can live with. The more planes they produce yearly. The higher the Bomber yearly profits will be and the higher the evaluation.
But is Airbus going to push for more sales? Remember they're driving the BUS now (pun intended) .Or are they going to try and sell at a higher profit per plane and sell slower. That's the BILLION dollar question (pun intended). I suspect a little of both. Sell slower for a higher price per plane. Airbus is a seasoned producer of planes
Remember. They also have to squeeze suppliers along the way to get higher profits. So if they get a higher value for each plane to beggin with? And they squeeze the suppliers hard too. Then BONUS.
As for the first few orders to Air Can. and Delta. Bombardier took the loses (write off) on their books already. I suspect that is the short fall they're talking about in the JV. But who knows with this Bombardier non-information group. So
SCALP is a
NO Debt company spitting out profits immediately.
Bombardier makes enough gross annual profit to benefit from that write down anyway. So more profit from the BT side as well for that writedown.
I BELIEVE. This company is going to be a cash machine in the 6 to 7 years. With the right person (BELLEMARE) at the HELM.
Cheers
145
RE:A220 Deliveries of for 2018
where do you get the a220 53% increase? i don't see that in the leeham paper.
good luck
bbdbinvestor145 wrote: I was reading an article this morning from Leeman's that was comparing Airbus's deliveries to Boeing's. Here it is bellow, with some info regardieng the CSeries.
Single Aisle
"Airbus has a 12% advantage in Single Aisle deliveries if we count the segment from 100 seats upwards. This is because the A220 is included since 1 July. Total CSeries/A220 deliveries were 33 for 2018, but the 13 delivered before 1st of July are counted as Bombardier deliveries.
If the Boeing Joint Venture with Embraer happens during 2019 it gets more leveled again but the A220 will be further in its ramp than the Embraer E190/195-E2 during 2019, and there are not many deliveries of E190/195 classic."
What I got out of this.
Airbus has produced 20 planes in the second half of the year compared to 13 for Bombardier for the first half. Which says a lot for the Airbus re-tooling of the Mirabel plant.
Airbus has increased production by a whopping 53% at Mirabel. That's nothing to sneeze at.
The other item is that we can expect about 35 from Mirabel and another 30 from Alabama next year. So total of 65 for 2020.
If they can slowly raise that to 80 planes, for 2021 and 100 for 2022. The JV will be producing a good chunk of change from 2021 to 2025.
Say 80 for 2021 from both plants.
80 x $6 mill./ plane profit = $480 mill./year
$480 x 5 years = $2.4 billion
$2.4 billion x34% + 2% the Bomber share = $860 million + another $140 million between 2019 and 2020 = $1 billion from the SCALP JV.
Remember this is for 5 years plus say another $300 billion from Aeorstructures and suddenly there is $1.3 to $1.5 billion from the the JV
Taking this into account.
If the profit of the JV is $2.4 billion yearly? Then what is the value of the program?
I say 4x. So 4 x $2.4 = $10 billion give or take.
$10 billion x 34% = $3.4 billion buy out for Bombardier.
$3.4 billion from the JV buyout in 2025. Plus $1.3 billion from the profits of the program till 2025, = $4.7 billion
Not Bad.
$4.7 billion to throw at the DEBT.
Plus $800 million every year from 2020 to 2025 from BT, Aerostructures, BBA, according to guidence by the Bomber.
Suddenly we have $800 mill x 6 = $4.8 billion of our own generated from there.
Well $4.7 from the CSeries + $4.8 from the Bomber's other programs.
WOW $9.5 billion.
What's the debt?
NO DEBT. It's been PAID.
Remember we still have Caisse.
I say. Pay off Caisse ASAP, when the programs set in place right now, are running in FULL THROTTLE. Their take is 9% every year from BT. Take them out at the end of 2020. This give the Bomber some time, to build up the reserves.
Enjoy your day folks. Sorry for the rough math. Maybe Retired can sharpen the math up a little bit better. But that's all the information we have to go by.
We're looking good.
Cheers
145