RE:I WOULD HOLD. And reap the benefits in 2020.
bbdbinvestor145 wrote: Hey Pinot.
Pablo doesn't know what he's talking about.
So they increased the interest rate by even a point 1% in the last debt renewal of $2 billion. That's 20 million more a year in interest for the same $2 billion Notes. That's penuts.
I can't even make out what he's saying about IQ's share of CSALP. The Bomber is not buying it. Even if it becomes available sooner then theirs. If someone buys IQ, it will be Airbus. Bombardier doesn't have the money. Airbus will take out the Bomber even sooner than JAN. 2026. Bombardier isn't going to invest further in this JV. They may have read my posts. Because they're wisening up. If they (the Bomber) keep putting any money in CSALP they're helping finance the CSeries for Airbus.
I don't know what else you want me to analyze about Pablo's post.
Look. Simple.
When this is put in place by the end of 2019 to the end of 2020. This is how it's going to look.
You can't be blind of this fact.
$17 billion in revenue.
X 9% margins (when you get rid of 10,000 unionized employees in one shot This is what happens. $500 million a year in savings.)
One of the reasons the Bomber wasn't meeting their guidence was because of these unions) Remember they announced the job cuts, but they couldn't implement them because of these unions.
So this year they're both gone. Next year $500 million savings.
So $1.5 FCF.
$9.5 billion X 8% interest for Debt= $750 million interest
$1.5 billion FCF -$750 million interest on debt = $750 million. Posible profit.
We're forgetting Caisse $1.5 billion X 9% = $135 million + 30% profit of BT $225 million = $350 million to Caisse.
This is why Caisse has to go in 2020. They will have the money next year after the Belfast sale. Watch, this is exactly what's going to happen. This is the only sensible thing to do.
$750 million - $350 million to Caisse every year = $400 million profit yearly.
If you get rid of Caisse the profit goes up to $750 million yearly. they can do that. They'll have $5 billion in reserves by the end of 2019 with the sale of Belfast. They pay Caisse's share off of $2.5 billion by 2020 at least.
Now is when you start to chip away at the debt as Pablo wants to see. Which they will.
Their yearly profit will be $500 to $750 million yearly after Caisse is gone. Plus the $2.5 billion in reserves left, and we're in good shape. From 2021 to 2024 the reserves should be up to $4 billion again.
What's is keeping you from understanding this?
The possible $3 billion that CSALP will pay to Bombardier by 2024-5 for the Bombers share of CSALP?
Then you start reducing the debt even further.
Not bad for a company that's supposed to be in trouble, according to everyone here, including YOU.
Look I'm not high and I not interested in getting high. I have a hard enough time dealing with reality, let alone imagination/dreams of a high strain of POT.
The reality is looking in your face.
You deal with it.
Cheers
145
Someone asked for recommendation and a discussion happened.
Pablo never said that Bombardier would buy the IQ part. I didn't verify each point he made. However, I agree about what he meant, that the debt is astronomic and to service is quite expensive. Bombardier only deliver one of their money making Global 7500 so far. Niki Lauda probably got it at a very low price. He is a kind of an ambassador making something like 300 trips a year (I don't recall exactly) on his older Global 6000.Lauda owned in the past a G6000, G5000 and a Challenger. Nobody will ever know how much Lauda paid and this is OK. He will make drool a few billionaires when they will see him with his G7500.
I don't care about a few points in % to service the debt at this point. This is the
whole I don't like. It doesn't mean that Bombardier will fail. I will not wait until 2020 or 2026. Airbus could buy the program before. It could be good for Bombardier if it can recoup the money invested. Airbus might prefer to sell its A320 instead of the A220 and A330. This is why Bombardier made a clause that in 2026, it could force Airbus to buy the program at a fair price.
If I was not in the MJ sector, I would be in the kinds of companies I was before, not necessarly the same since I stopped following them. I don't have your patience while I can make money elsewhere. How will be the next quarter with no Global delivered? The MJ sector is so obvious, at least for me.
Take the tomato producer who switched most of his production to cannabis. A tomato has to be taking care a lot, lot more than cannabis. They have to be delivered in a truck to the market and store in a proper place. The producer grow them in greenhouses and in Quebec, the winters are quite cold. A growing season for tomato last about 4 months outside in the summer, starting in the spring at mid-May. Take a gram of cannabis that will be sent directly to the customer with a cheap delivery cost or bought in a store. Once produced and packed, it can be shaken in the mail, while the tomato needs a lot more care to reach the supermarket. If you drop a tomato on the ground, it will be damaged.
The recreational sector will represent only 7%. We will have a more accurate number when the companies will be more matures. A consumer can vaporize or even better use oil, already on the market, if he cares for his lungs. The medical sector will be the big thing followed by many others like the edible and the cosmetic.
Take a gram of pot and a tomato. Which one is the most valuable and which one needs the most care? I don't try to convince you and I know I will not. Good luck with Bombardier. I will follow the main events, jumping in if I think it is worth it for a quick trade. I could be tempted to be long again in 2020 if Bombardier is more attractive but in 2020, the MJ sector should be so hot that I stay in it. Many here have already switched to the greener side, some will call it the dark side. Hey, let's wait and see and good luck with Bombardier. You might need a big bat to relieve the stress for being a Bombardier investor. ;p
