2021 +FCFIn my estimation after reading the numbers for 2021. The company did very well They should be proud of the job they've done, during a pandemic filled with shortages, and the difficult transition year, from a company without focuss to a pure play company with a focuss on profits.
In 2021, the EM/BD management team has taken a debt laden company, with no direction, out of a possible BK, and refinanced, and retooled the company and changed it's focuss into a PURE PLAY business jet aviation company. These things were not easy to accomplish. EM/BD have laid the tracks to financial success for years to come for Bombardier, in just 1 year. I say that's fast, and I'm proud of their accomplishments.
It's hard for people to understand what actually happened here this year, but I'll say it in laymens (simple language) terms for those investors who's English is a second language.
They worked with their suppliers to make sure that they had NO interruptions to the supply chain. The importance of this job is tremendous, because, they could easily take on a mountain of debt, or use all existing Cash Reserves, if they have a bad Quarter or Half Year. They turned the company into a profitable Services & Manufacturing of Business Jets business company in 1 Year.
These two guys (EM/BD) are business people. They refinanced the debt, thus reducing the Interest Rates where possible, and reducing the total yearly servicing/payment of the debt to $500M. They've become independent, with no Govt help (big step). Now Bombardier controls Bombardier's future. No more the Gov't told us to give the CSeries to Airbus for free.
They showed a +FCF of 140M + or - for the whole year (2021) after Interest payments were paid. What else can you ask of these guys?
But 2021 had expenses as well. They dished out about $300M for Pearson & Service Centers. They planned for $400M according to early reports, but I'm sure that went closer to $600M. This $140M +FCF doesn't go a long way to cover so many litlle expenses this company had in 2021, but it helped. I'm sure they used another $200M/$300M from Reserves/Deposits etc. That doesn't matter though. What matters is that, 2022 will be a great year because these guys have done the job, in restructuring this company for success from now on.
That's why I say that, they should be proud.
Looking ahead. 2022 should produce $6.5B of Revs. Estimated EBITDA of $825M. Adjusted EBIT of $375M. Then +FCF is estimated around $50M. I know why they announced a smaller +FCF for 2022 than they had in 2021. It's because they are not going to use any more money from their reserves, to prop up this company again in the future. What I mean is that, this year they used some reserves to get a positive FCF, but next year they will catch up. Remember that they gotta pay $400M to $500M according to them for Pearson alone both in 2021/2. Then they had the Service Centers Improvements too, so that will all come out of +FCF both 2021/22. But the good part of those investments in PP&E is that, that investment goes into their pocket, as PP&E. They are essentially putting money to improving their Properties, Plants and Equipment.
So this company is now on track. It has survived, it will survive, and it's all done by the hard work of EM/BD. The heavy profits will start to come in 2023. That's what Benoit Porier is saying from Desjardins. They finally got some good luck from the market/pandemic, and the right people are leading this company. I believe they'll reach their 2025 goals of $500M +FCF, and that's when they'll start to reduce the debt in earnest.
What I don't know is what, the MM's are going to do with the Share Price (SP). But like I said. If a couple of funds get in, and see, what I, and many others see about Bombardier's future, then those Funds will influence the SP greatly and take control from the MM's action. Because when the Funds get in, the rest of the Retail will as well. Including day traders who may decide to go short term long.
Lastly. People here, like Greenday/Patient or any others who have come to this Board trying to change/convert other Investors here to their thinking, and their beliefs. Please stop your preaching. We are converted Bombardier Investors, that are trying to make a living the best way we know how, with this incorrigible company, and having to deal with these Market Maker thieves. So cut us some slack, and keep your ways of making money to yourselves.
Feb 24th 2022 is the next target.