1.950 Billion cdn on 2023....That is my bold and confident prediction of the 2023 of EBITDA by the END of year. The math is actually pretty simple;
If we look at the last two quarters as pointed by sham and temp, the mix of jets is pretty constant at a ratio of 1 mid and 1.5 large (was 20/29 for Q4 and heading for 10/15 for Q1) no more cheaper Learjets on the equation.
Using this regular patern and having calculated in an earlyer post that the manufacturing side generates an average of 45.5 million per plane and with management confirming 138 deliveries (minimum) for 2023 we get to revs of 6.280B US for the year. Management also confirmed that margins for manufacturing was 18%, that adds up to 1.130B U$ just for manufacturing.
As for aftermarket, revs were about 1.6B U$ last year, new sites were recently opened and EM said their goal was to get to 2B by 2025 so I predict we get to, or pretty close to, 1.750B U$ 2023. Margins on aftermarket are around 20% (again as per managements latest update) that gives us 350M U$ for that segment give or take
So if we add 1.130B +350M and give and exchange rate of 1.32 we get to 1.953B cdn...
Crazy!!!!! that's 19.50$ of EBITDA per share, with a very conservative multiple of 8X we get to a share price of 156$ BY THE END OF THE YEAR. Even if you price in the 10% bbd discount... just for being bbd...we get to a stock price of around 140$ by, or before year end, (that is the target I have personnaly...)
GltaLongs and feal free to comment/correct ;) I am not a pro, just having fun and doing my best to see were this is going.
PS no likes plz; would like to keep them as/is...lol