BOEING AND REGIONAL JETS MARKETDemand for
Commercial Airplanes
Traffic and Fleet
Network Development
Fleet Growth
Airplane Replacement
Noise Standards
Deliveries
Demand for Freighters
Regional Deliveries
Deliveries
The largest share of airplane deliveries are single aisle. The
current world fleet of 11,500 single-aisle airplanes plus regional
jets is expected to grow to 23,850 airplanes by the year 2021.
Airlines will use these smaller airplanes to offer more frequencies
in domestic service and short-haul international flights.
Need for regional jets will increase.
The regional jet share will increase substantially. US regional
airlines are operating smaller jets on new nonstop flights.
Regional jets extend the geographic reach of Major airline hubs,
augment larger jet operations in off-peak hours, replace Major
airline larger jets on thin routes, and substitute for prop flights.
European carriers also will operate large numbers of regional jets,
especially in hub bypass and point-to-point markets.
Although not at the high absolute numbers experienced in Europe and
North America, other regions of the world also will be expanding
their use of regional jets over the next 20 years. For example, the
share of Oceania’s fleet comprising smaller regional jets will
increase from 7% to 16%. In China, the share will increase from 6%
to 12%.
Intermediate-size airplane market will grow the fastest.
Airlines will continue to augment their fleets of twin-aisle
airplanes as well. Over half the delivery dollars are intermediate
twin-aisle and larger jets. These airplanes will serve fragmenting
long-haul markets such as the Atlantic and Pacific, as well as
higher density shorter routes, such as those within Asia.
Large-airplane market is small.
The market for very large airplanes is small. Summing the projected
requirements for 747-and-larger airplanes in all major travel
markets reveals a total need for 944 airplanes over the next 20
years.
Within this size category, about 40% of the requirement—or
approximately 393 jets—is for passenger airplanes of the size of the
747-400. About one-quarter of the requirement is for freighters.
The market for airplanes larger than today’s 747-400 becomes
significant only during the second decade of this forecast. By the
end of the forecast period, most intercontinental routes will have
at least daily service, and traffic volumes will support an airplane
larger than the current 747.
The projected requirement for airplanes of 500 seats or greater,
however, is estimated at only 334 passenger jets over the study
period.
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