Post by
MyNameIsNobody on Nov 26, 2023 11:59am
Aircrafts flight tested vs number of deliveries/exportations
At this point, based on the CCAR exportations list, we still need Bombardier to get 40 aircrafts out of the door to reach the '138 or more' target for the year. This is misleading, because we all know they do not just export aircrafts and military deliveries might not be taken into account in this list. (As far as I know, for the military part)
I've been trying to figure out why there were so many aircrafts tested (not flight tests, but really individual aircrafts tested) and comparatively so quite a few deliveries less. Some other user posted stuff as facts and had me doing some digging.
The result confirmed my previous assumption about the mismatch. Bombardier has delivered at least 7 more aircrafts than the 40 we know of. These deliveries were made in Canada.
If we add the 2 Bombardier Defense deliveries announced by Bombardier, one in October and the other in November, 9 aircrafts would have been delivered and not taken into account in our 'in house deliveries needed' countdown.
Let's be conservative and not add the military, since I'm not sure if these are included in the CCAR list or not, and just add the 7 delivered in Canada. This would make 40 'in house still needed' minus 7 delivered in Canada for a total of a maximum of 33 left to deliver.
Knowing that last year Bombardier delivered 25 aircrafts in December alone makes me think that reaching the 138+, as planned by Eric Martel, is a very easily achievable goal.
GLTAL
Comment by
Tempo1 on Nov 26, 2023 12:22pm
Can you develop about the 7 Canadian deliveries : Serial numbers? where did you find them ? Thanks
Comment by
Tempo1 on Nov 26, 2023 2:14pm
That is looking good. A very positive info. Thanks. At the end of the quarter, starting with the July and Sham numbers, I adjust with the Wichita deliveries, you can adjust for the Candian deliveries. With this team work, we will win.
Comment by
MyNameIsNobody on Nov 26, 2023 3:01pm
Tempo1 - That's right, combining all sources of info will get us a clearer picture of how things are going and what might be coming up. Management has a very clear plan and they haven't wavered at all these last 3 years. I'm expecting good numbers from the service side and another 400K or so of debt repayment between now and Q4 results. GLTA
Comment by
BBDB859 on Nov 26, 2023 9:02pm
That is great news Nobody. We can easily deliver the 33 left over. If we also take out the 2 military ones, we're down to 31. Nice digging. We'll have a strong +FCF Q4/24. I'm sure they'll have the cash to take out some LTD, with this re-financing shuffle.