RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Nat gas this morning....
GuidoSan1 wrote: Hi 41, have to comment on the continued diatribe concerning being unhedged, if you think about it there is a case for looking at being unhedged both ways.
For example when summer NG demand is low (and I will restate the EIA is lying to everyone and fudging the current numbers IMO) does anyone really believe the companies unhedged and not going thru AECO or HH are the first go to's when as is BIR is a first go to when they are conceivably asking (current HH) twice the hedged price the bigger players are selling theirs for? Highly unlikely.
Further to continue generating sales thru low damand or shoulder seasons does anyone really believe a BIR doesn't sell at competitive prices to maintian it's share of the pie? Just cause they are unhedged doesn't mean they can't sell at whatever price they choose given market demand.
In a perfect world yes being unhedged may be more profitable when demand (primarily winter season for majority NA) out strips production, but as I stated earlier IMO don't believe what's currently going on.
Check for the coming winter forcast is it milder or colder? NG storage is less than 15% off the 5 year average and can easily be made up with 2 or 3 large injections in Sept or early Oct.
Lot's of B-S going on right now in my opinion, cheers.
Yep. There is a lot of BS happening. It is difficult to gauge as to "when" $hit will hit the fan. In the US, the midterms are coming.. will the FED try not to push interest rates too much in order to favour the dems? Or will rates continue to be pushed up? Manipulation is occurring imo.
Is recession priced in the market?
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-market-outlook-wti-brent-recession-risks-economy-2022-7