Financing Had a chat with management.
not much in specifics to update because of restrictions - prior to the release of the refinancing package and the 2023 business (drilling plan).
A few thoughts for people that are bored enough to read my posts
1. a few investment guys, plus a few amateurs have pointed out we have seen rapid oil price drops between early November to first week of December for the last few years. No real explanations other than extreme liquidity issues. 80+ to 66.00 last year.
2. the refinancing is still on track to coincide with the annual renewal or just before
3. Everyone already knows that the BDC and Export Dev loans are very cheap. And that there are restrictions. They don't want to bring in a divvy until they are 100% convinced it would never be cut and within the new covenants. That probably means a debt to cash flow of around .5. Or 100 to 120 million in debt. Which leads to
4. Per the new presentation debt should be dropping about 30 million in Q4 (150-160 million at year end) Q1 is and always will be our biggest drilling quarter. Typically because of ground conditions and wanting to tie in flush gas production during peak demand months so debt won't move much.. Q2 capex tends to fall off hard due to break up - which means June 30th is probably the target to begin dividends.
5. Q4 netbacks are coming back to normal. Q4 drilling plan update should make investors a little happier as they bring the numbers back in line with prior quarters.
6. 2023 is starting at a higher production base. Yeah I know - captain obvious.
7. eric Nuttall moved BNE back onto his valuation chart as the absolute cheapest company at 1.5 X next years cashflow. Check it out on twitter @ericnuttall
8. Our collars are much higher going into 2023 than last year.
9. Smaller tuck in acquisitions are still on the table