RE:Cheap cheap cheap, nothing else to saythe whole sector is cheap again - BMO came out with a 12.00 target on BNE but I could not see the date on the report. @garquake is pretty good at posting oil and gas reports and related info. If someone has someone else worth following please let me know. He is largely reposting research rather than his own content.
A couple of obvious things in the updated December presentation to point out.
1. the second lien is amortizing at about 5 million per quarter
2. the sensitivity to WTI is over 2.15 million per 1.00 increase in WTI. The annual forecast assumed an average of 74.00. - If WTI averages 85.00 then cash flow should be about 200 million and free cash 65 to 75 million.
The drilling wedge to grow production is expected to cost roughly 30 million and largely means keeping the same drilling schedule in Q4. I like the consistent drilling program rather than the stop/start approach. It has to be a lot more effective.
3. total Debt is assumed to rise slightly in Q1 before dropping steadily for the balance of the year.
4. The bank debt actually shows up as a negative liability (or a cash balance) later in the year so they are obviously gearing up to keep a bit of cash on hand for other options or to prevent cutting back the dividend once it is reinstated.