RE:RE:RE:Divvy: not sure what's expected but likely between 1&2 cent I enjoyed reading your posts resilience.
Per the previous note, Mgt has said repeatedly that growth is NOT the priority right now. Free cash flow is the priority. The extra 10 million spend would add like 3% to production. They are inching into the Montney because of the well economics, but Cardium has been stabilized at a decent rate.
Would love a dividend but no point in starting it until the company is bullet proof so they don't have to embarrass everyone with a dividend cut.
a tiny buyback would go a long way with this one though. There is/was no reason for the sharp drop to 4.50 buybacks and buybacks would prevent the chiseling illiquid buys. The buybacks would also be hugely accretive.
both are likely off the table for a quarter or two until gas recovers a bit. We have some gas hedges in place so it is not the disaster that some have gone thru. And we have way more light oil and not much cheap gas liquids so compared to other cardium players we are in decent shape.
Interesting now the constant narrative about a recession next month in the USA has turned to economic growth being surprisingly high. Maybe that takes a few short sellers out of the commodity.
Oil might be flatish this year but gas will definitely improve going into the fall. At some point LNG Canada and Woodfibre will want to start contracting for delivery. They are roughly a bcf short on supply, (ie non-owned production) so either someone gets bought or some supply gets pulled out of the market. I keep hearing comments that they will start up sooner than expected.
there are also 5 gas plants being fired up in AB/Sask this year which will need another .5 bcf
with the recent drop in gas production and drilling things should be a lot tighter in the west going into fall. Nice to finally NOT see a constant stream of 35 mmcf dry gas wells drilled by Ovintiv on the top well reports. Maybe someone woke up over there.