Bonterra Energy Corp T.BNE

Charlie Lake acreage

[TheRexmember]

Resilience do you know how close the land is to the TVE 1100 boe wells they have been bringing in?

Any idea how much production and land Kelt has at Charlie Lake? 

Kelt like to spin out assets on a regular basis- maybe there is a deal down the road there...

or maybe a swap with the Montney acreage after they put inva couple more wells.

[Resilience2]

No but TVE's main production area is more to the South, near Wembley and Pipestone. Maybe some small blocks to the North of that, possibly near BNE but they don't have a grid to match. However it did look like that a batch of the best 15 wells was lying more north of TVE country, possible closer to BNE's land. But be careful by judging production of wells as there IP is very important

[Resilience2]

This stuff (P35 Kelt presentation) is basically happening directly below & BNE's acreage: CHARLIE LAKE ACTIVITY Recently acquired lands in a new Charlie Lake play for Kelt. De-risked the play with nine vertical well re-completions in 2022, followed up with three additional re-completions in 2023. Vertical re-completions proved viability of the play in the Charlie Lake formation

[TheRexmember]

Thanks R. Having some issues with reconciling production this year with company forecasts.  I haven't called management in quite a while. Thought I would wait until the Montney well is online a month or so before I bug them.  BUT, I am reasonably certain they are sandbagging on average production numbers of up to 14,200 this year. My guess is it will be 1000 boe higher by

[Resilience2]

I do think they'll end up higher in production 2. They likely keep out the Montney well because it pays for the 2nd drill so doesn't add to fcf this year.  if you look in the presentation you'll see CL production replacing some of the (high decline) Cardium. So Cardium production won't remain the same but get replaced by better capital efficient CL ones. Looks like only 23

[Lurkzies]

I could see them keeping out both Mtny 1 and Mtny 2 out of some of the revenue and cash estimates, with payment terms, most likely most the cash for those will be late fall or 2025. But why not include them in your average production, or exit rates? this mess up with last years production forecasts, and not updating, is really throwing me for a loop.

[TheRexmember]

Hmm. Never thought of it that way really. It was a pretty material beat.  earlier on in the year I was getting it - some surprizes on JV wells with higher production. But that was unnecessary to wait 3 months - and the last deck was dated December. At least a field estimate would have been appreciated.   

[blackdog]

Bonterra has always been very conservative when reporting; very much in the “under-promise/over deliver” camp.  And, for very obvious commercial reasons, is not forthcoming about anything that it is not required to report. Share values are absurdly low. Balance sheets are better than ever. Cash is flowing and there is every expectation that this will continue; and grow.  There are solid

[Resilience2]

Blackdog, can you post that report and maybe comment on any noticeable changes as we go along? Much appreicated. R. 

[blackdog]

Wow. In the two weeks from end of Feb to middle of Mar the total short position, which has been over a million shares for months (if not years), fell from 1.2 million shares shorted to under 400K: BNE TSX 397485 -796602   That the report came out this morning may explain (in part) today's jump. Clearly there are traders who have re-assessed

[Lurkzies]

Just commenting on the sandbagging: I chose BNE because they are a fantastic attic management team, that do what they say and are accurate. My trust was a bit dented last year with how off they were with YE estimates vs what was achieved. At any time in December they knew the numbers and just chose not to update the slides and projections. It could have helped the shares, and in not doing so