Big Banc Split Corp T.BNK

The Facts

[braincloud]

I've been reading through all the B.S posts and I feel I need to throw my bit in here as well just to set the record straight with facts and not BULL SHEIT. I grow tired of the rhetoric that isn't based on facts and all you guys that insist I will put on ignore one by one. Frankly, if I do you, should put me on ignore as well then all you idiots can talk amongst yourselves. Where you bought and how much and what your view really doesn't matter to me or any of the long time posters on this name if you don't have something worthwhile to add. It's seems to me that all you guys came out of the woodwork like roaches with little solid information to add and all you throw out there is B.S. now that the stock has been beat up and clog up the blog so much I can't follow who has something interesting to say.

First, the amount the stock has dropped since news broke about the ALB tax department is a bit over 5 times the claim in terms of market cap lost. I think this is WAY over done!! I think there will be an odor on the name for a while though and this may keep a lid on the stock rallying back to where it was. But that said numbers don't lie.

By making payments to the tax office is by no means an admission of guilt. I view this as a compromise to have funds released so that they can operate normally. It also allows the ALBS to save face as well. This will win that idiot Mr. Rama a few brownie points in the popularity polls as well. Frankly, if I were to bump into him I'd kick that idiot straight in the balls!!
It;s my view that BNK will be vindicated and any payments made until such time as the audit is completed, will be reconciled against royaty and excise taxes. I find it interesting that they settled on $57 million and not the the $75 million as a starting point.
To validate the ALB claim of ANY PROFIT TAX , they would have to disallow $242.9 million in CAPEX and OPEX expences for 2011. Unless BNK has grossly misrepresented this amount, I can't imagine a scenario that would see this happen.
As I have said in prior posts, there have been minor adjustments to the COST RECOVERY POOL in the past, but all prior claims that were reversed were minor.2011 all taxes owed from ORR ( gross over-riding royaly) 1% for new production plus10% royalty tax was 19% of revenue and amounted to a total of $63.9 million. Just in case anyone was feeling sorry for the poor Albanians.

BNK spent $242.9 million in CAPEX ( see page 24 of 2011 annual report ) and there was $235.2 million left in the COST RECOVERY POOL exiting 2011. The ALBS would have to disallow ALL the CAPEX to make any claim valid
This arrangement is clearly written in the Petroleum Agreement

As investors we have to decide what happens from the audit as I see it. If you think that BNK has somehow over-stated their CAPEX or outright lied about the numbers ( highly doubtful ) then we are scrwed. If on the otherhand they didn't and there are only minor adjustments , if any, then there is a brighter side and the ALBS have no claim for any PROFIT TAX.

Then , if vindicated, what will come from the ICC process?. Also, if vindicated, will there be any further issues, or will this now set the record straight? Will there be any further claims by either party? Can BNK sue for damages? etc etc.
It's like what the company stated in the prior announcement, once this is settled they will have a clearer understanding of how this industry operates.
Just a few weeks ago this company had a market cap of $600 million and now lies than half that. It doesn't add up in my mind. What has really changed over the few weeks? Not much. Were well aware that there was a dispute. We just didn't bargain for them not responding to the ICC order. Yes, they compromised, but they haven't given them anything yet. Whatever they give the Tax department will be reconcilled against the future royalty stream in any case.
Yes, you can speculate that the ALBS will do this or do that, but it's worst case speculation. Even they aren't that stupid.
To set the record straight about Albania, for all you ignorant folks out there.

Here's some simple facts:
1. Albania is a member of the United Nations, NATO, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, the Council of Europe and the World Trade Organization. It is one of the founding members of the Energy Community, Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation and the Union for the Mediterranean. It is also an official candidate for membership in the European Union
2.The Albanian republic is a parliamentary democracy established under a constitution renewed in 1998.[76] Elections are held every four years to the 140-seat unicameralAssembly of the Republic of Albania. In June 2002, a compromise candidate, Alfred Moisiu, former Army General, was elected to succeed President Rexhep Meidani. After parliamentary elections in July 2005, Sali Berisha, the leader of the Democratic Party, became prime minister, while on 20 July 2007 Bamir Topi became president. The current Albanian president Bujar Nishani was elected by Parliament in July 2012. Now it our idiot Edi Rama, a socialtist.

[needwisdom]

Thanks! So giving your analysis, how much would the $57 million take out from each share if they were all paid to the government? Would it be reasonable to say that the new share target would be $2 now? I think given what happened, the street will never give this company again the multiple it deserves, at least for years to come. It will always trade at a lower PE than its peers, giving how

[braincloud]

My position is that they haven't paid anything yet! Once the audit is completed then they will reconcile against Royalty taxes due, Nothing much has changed. |They didn't shut down and they still produce 19,000 bbls per day profitably with a huge reserve. This company NEVER got the multplie it deserved , that's why many of us still are long the stock. Even looking back, it was always

[braincloud]

The whole oil space sucks. Everyone knows that there's too much oil . no demand , China is shutting down, the USD is too strong , etc etc. But still the best cure for low oil prices is low oil prices. So you have to decide is the value there, is the risk reward there? I happen to think so more now than a few weeks ago because in my mind not much has changed except a bunch of sheit headlines

[needwisdom]

Make sense! Thanks and good luck to all of us longing the stock! I do not feel so bad about my investment decison in this comapny since I did my homework very well on it. ANd all analysts were rating it as a strong buy and buy, at least at the time when I bought at $3!

[needwisdom]

Thanks again! I guess what I would like to know if and when they pay the full $75 mil to the government, what would be the net asset value per share? Now it is $4.20 since as u mentionned, they have not paid anything yet.

[braincloud]

Do the math! About 0.28 cents per share!!!!!

[needwisdom]

ok, 28 cents plus all the extra fear and lack of knowldge ...so I guess we will be looking at NAV around $3.80....and we will be trading at a discount to NAV giving what happened.

[grantoue]

Awesome history lesson . I bought into BNK 3 weeks ago and added to my position after the stock dropped 45 cents . i am currently down 250000.00 . I bought into the stock because it was the best bet at the time. i can't see why the stock won't go back to where it was. 

[needwisdom]

And all the anaylyst rating were very bullish on the stock, right?! But they were also bullish on it when oil was at $100, no one predicted the $40 oil. so Why would we even read or care about their prediction anymore? It is all random, perhaps the casino is more fun.

[Britt11]

think of how much management and insiders have invested in this company. It IS their life. They have an extremely high invested interest to make this stock a success My advice, put the computers away and stop watching it trade minute by minute- that is if you are a long and not a day trader and or shorter (hence essentially day trader). It will come back, who knows how long it will take though

[Chris1056]

Very good analysis. Thanks for putting those facts together. It is a win-win situation. It will be easier to negociate with oil oiling the both parties. It will be smoother... lol! Have nice weekend, Chris1056