but a dividend cut would be pretty extreme.
Indeed it would. And bad for business. Retail not so much because it takes forever to move yoru mortgage, but commercial would flee any sense of an upset. Far better to borrow to cover the divvy for a couple of quarters than cut it.
And that's really the point. This business is still making huge cash flow - in fact net income and gross income are still increasing, as are earnings, while the reserve for bad loans isn't. I'm not seein any sign of where they wouldn't be able to pay the divvy in the next quarter or two. EVen on retail mortgages, if it gets that bad - most of the higher risk ones (especially ones that took out COVID money to buy new or second places - are insured mortgages so recourse wouln't fall on the bank.
Business.... well not so much, but I guess we have to see signs of a recession and we're at least 2 quarters away from that right now.