While U.S. crude storage capacity is being tested, Goldman expects the inventories will peak in April, before declining from May to September, with last week's data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing a decline in weekly production offering a potential early sign the market is stabilizing.
But that could prove temporary.
"Any meaningful price recovery on evidence of declining production and U.S. crude inventories would further undermine the U.S. rebalancing process," it said.
In addition, production could continue to grow in April, with producers focusing on "high-grading," or shifting resources to their highest-quality wells, as well as productivity gains and shorter drilling times, Goldman said. It expects U.S. production will grow by 700,000 barrels a day this year.
Downtrend not over
Others also expect the recent gains in oil prices aren't a sign the long downtrend has ended.
"It's a bit of a head fake," Matt Smith, a commodity analyst atSchneider Electric, told CNBC Tuesday. He attributed the rise to a combination of pent-up demand over the long holiday weekend and a weaker dollar as well as the Genscape data.