RE:RE:They're still tallllkiiingHouseOfSaud wrote: Iventis wrote: oil price goes up
a bit early in shoulder season for the ralley isnt it? I expected another month of nothing.
the iran comments yesterday wer total BS - yes, you should make a ceiling, we support you capping your own production. we will keep raising ours - THATS WHAT THEY SAID!!!!
however, when the market decides it wants to ralley, you have to respect that consider the unknowns. I remember on March 9, 2009, Citibank "leaked" a letter from CEO saying "hey, thiings arent so bad, we are making money, if you ignore impairments" and a powerralley began.
When its time to reverse trend its time. thats it. our job now is to determine, is this a tradable bounce, or a trend reversal.
any chart watchers here? what do the charts say?
I believe this is a tradable bounce. It's positive that there is an agreement to freeze production but don't forget that the Saudis are pumping near all time highs and are near max production. The glut will continue for several more months, in my opinion. I picked up some shares a few days ago as a trace and will be selling on this rally. If the EIA confirms the drawdown in inventories reported by the API, we could see a further surge in price but I think we could then revisit mid-$20's. If the EIA does not confirm the drawdown, price will head back down into the $20's.