Who cares about the bullys, lets talk about Baytex and OilI heard this morning that if there is a meeting we will see $50 oil. If we dont, we go back to $35. So... its a risk reward thing...
If you try to think about it rationally, you will realize that you are better to be long. If oil goes to $50 and the meeting has an agreement, Baytex is going to be likley $7.50 to $8.00 or so.
If there is no agreement and oil tanks to $35, BTE will be back around $4.70 to $5 or so. ... But.. if you look out a couple months, oil will likely get to $50 all by itself, and possibly $60 by year end.
As we go into 2017, we have 1.13 million barrels more oil estimated on consumption, 2016 is about 1.3 million... thats 2.43 million barrels more than in 2015 being consumed. China just released data they imported 13% more oil ... So with the production losses coming from the US/Canada oil fields... coupled with the increased consumption, we will likely see about 3 million less barrels per day of excess compared to 2015.
I thought there was only 2 million excess... so does that mean by 4th quarter 2016 we are at peak oil? Seems like it.