Oil price will go down to $30Look guys, I am not bashing. I am telling the reason. The largest consumers like China and India are drastically reducing fossil fuels as they have very low cost alternative energy solution like solar and electric cars etc. Don't believe!!! look at their nuclear energy based power plant orders with Areva. They need cheap and clean energy. They are also massively using CNG, Solar and electric cars (very cheap compared to north america). So their demand is going down. Let us talk about NA. People in California and other intellectual states are reluctant to go for use of fossil fuels. This is the reason TransCanada is not pursuing the KXL pipeline as US demand is expected to go down.
Who else are left for reasoning? Here we go. All middle east countries who have nothing but oil will look for over production for their survival along with Venezuela, Algeria and Nigeria. Why over production? It is simple math, though not for protrader kids. Rate of barrel goes down so volume to go up in order to maintain the oil revenue. Is it clear?
Don't be baffled with reduction in US shell and COS production. Middle east itself apart from Russia will compensate with over-supply. This is good for NA. In long run, when oil bond dependancy will go down, The economy will automatically improve. I can see that in near future.
The fact is that oil's days are finished. This is upto you if you want to re-balance yourself.