RE:RE:When to buy back and at what price?1nt2Trade wrote: Usually the thrid day after a macro bear event like Brexit of chinese devaluation in Jan is the best day to buy or the low point when buyers start coming back on board. In the case of WTI it was highly extended past it's 200dma pre the brexit. This over extension past the 200dma was unsusal one of those times that the market will very likely spring back. You can fill in the XYZ fundamental event to justify its happening. On friday WTI closed very close to but below its 50dma which is bearish plus the "trend line" ie. the 50 period moving average was downward sloping again bearish.
The reversal will happen when you see a spike in the volume of WTI or the TSE or BTE and the price either not move in either direction or start an uptrend. This can be observed using the on balance volume technical indicator plooted with the price of the security. When the OBV line moves quick but the price doesn't match that's the divergence that signals accumulation and trend reversal.
A good target reversal for WTI is the 200 dma which is 44.6. If that holds and if buyers re-enter. Unless you are watching the charts and macro news closely this bottom is difficult to get exact.
The reversal of the market in Jan happened when the 25% of US equiies were below their 200dma. Before Brexit it was about 74% above the 200dma now its less then 50. You can go here to see that TA stat plus a whole lot more tools I use:
https://finviz.com/
Great post! Thanks for your input and technical analysis. Cheers.