RE:chinese PMI tonight @ 9:00d_trump wrote: It kills me how many posters here claim to know with certainty how low oil will go. Recall when oil fell below $30, everyone jumped on the "oil is going to $20 (or below)" bandwagon. Now everyone is so sure oil will go to $35 (or lower). Certainly there are some known headwinds but the question is whether these known factors are baked into the current price? Also for every known factor there are much bigger unknown potentials. IMO $35 is the new $20 - the low that everyone is calling for that won't happen. Despite all the current noise, oil fundamentals are much stronger than they were at this time last year - despite persistent high inventory levels, supply and demand are in balance and provided there is no global recession (you can never rule this out), we are headed to a deficit. However the magnitude of the deficit and speed at which we get there is unknown, but inventories will recede.
Certainly we could break $40 this week but we could just as easily bounce to $45. Chinese PMI is released tonight and the expectation is for 50. A significant beat or miss will likely be a good indicator of which way crude goes this week.
I have most of the "know-it-alls" here on ignore because if they really knew what they claim to know they wouldn't be wasting their time posting on Stockhouse, they would be on the golf course or their yacht.
Not sure if you have me on ignore or not, but I just call it the way I see it. I dont have a crystal ball to look out a year or 2, all I can do is look at what is going on today and how it may possibly (not a certainty) affect the price of oil going out a few weeks at most.. Trend is headwinds, and suggests lower oil. I dont think its going to plummet, but it could hit mid 30's again, heck its almost in the 30's now.. Lots of shorts getting back in, but that will only be temporary. I am quite sure way way out oil is higher and BTE will be over $10 again. Good luck everyone.