RE:RE:RE:Value?orlandofl wrote: Gashole1 wrote: zone1 wrote: Based on last quarter results, I think this company and others, are going to have to demonstrate their value; not just a few dollars fluctuation in oil. Next quarter will be worst than the last based on the price of oil over the last 2 and possibly last 3 months. They will have to show me the money. It was easy picking at 1.57 but at today's prices of 40-50 dollars there is not much to convince buyers to step in. Hence a one dollar movement is not doing much to booste the share price.
Your right, and at $40 to $50 oil BTE quarterly results just proved they will go bankrupt at these levels... If oil doesnt recover substantially over the next couple years (which it should in all honesty) then they are going to have major problems with paying debt that is due in the future. This next quarter is going to look messy. If $50 oil and the hedging they put in place cannot make them money, then $7 to $8 average less per barrel this quarter is going to hurt them more. I suggest their debt is increasing by somewhere around 500k to 750k per day average this quarter. Keep in mind the lag from reporting a month after the Q2 was actually over... Q3 for them is already half over..
they will not go bankrupt at $50 at all - at $40 many struggle and won't be proiftable, but many other companies / countries will go under first before Canadian oil companies that are not in financial distress - the result would be a drop in supply and an eventual spike up in oil prices as demand will not be met if oil stays in the low $40's - $50 oil they get by and can survive for a long long time - $40 they can survive a long time and have much more staying power than so many other businesses that produce oil at much higher prices. With all that said - I think we see oil over $50 within the next 6 months and over $55 within the next 12 and those numbers may be considerable conservative
It think oil goes higher, and you are being very conservative, but at $45 oil, to $50 BTE cannot even come close to paying its debt, hence my bankrupt comments... but I dont think thats going to happen as oil will likely be $80 and BTE making loads of cash and debt will be refinanced and likley partially paid off at least.