RE:RE:The market is forward looking!!!orlandofl wrote:
macman1519 wrote: Oil just put in a major bottom and the trend is up!!! 70 dollar oil will be reached before xmas!!!! And Bte will be in the twenties, higher with an increased div.
I'm not that optimisitc, but I would love it if you are right - there are many that think we are near the point of the buy of the century for oil stocks. I agree with them. Howevr, there are many, many bears waiting for an opportunity to turn the price down again - and the bears still out number the bulls even with the upturn, they have just been muted temporarily.
The bears have done extremely well over the last couple years . I think we'll be moving to a higher oil trading range, and then not too long we'll go to a higher trading range - I think that makes it harder for bears to make money and that they could start losing money as they may short too soon as oil finds a higher trading range than they anticipated. Right not may possibly be an example - some shorts may start shborting here at $45 (just crossed $45 oil for the moment) and maybe it will dip back down, but oil may still go to a higher trading range - maybe $47 plus short term with the possibility of hitting $50 - we'll see - I just think it is tougher for shorts to make money and many of those who have been bearish do see a longer term upward trend.
I think we are at or near the bottom of the oil cycle - if you think of a circle we are at the bottom - maybe just started up.
My gut tells me that since we are facing some headwinds coming up in the fall with increasing inventories, and until the markets are truly balanced we will see oil take another dip. thats when I suspect BTE will drop nicely and with oil back to around $40 again (I estimate) It might be the last time to buy BTE in the $5 ish range. Thats my plan anyways, not sure if it will work out, but time will tell.