RE:OPEC DealUnlucky13 wrote: The more I read about OPEC the less inclined I am to believe there is a deal. Oman will not attend, most of the OPEC countries are at record production levels, and most importantly Iraq and Iran don't want to participate fully. Also, you can't trust the Russians and Saudis. The worst part of the deal is that the OPEC minister said the talks are informal and won't lead to a deal. There is no sense of urgency, thy need to act and are dragging their feet. The Saudis and Middle East can stay profitable at lower levels more then the Americans so there is no incentive to cut back. Only when oil goes to Mendoza levels (sub $35/$40) will they act accordingly. Oil is a robust $46 now, although it's dropping aggressively overnight. Oil has been up everyday this week and here we are most likely back at $5 tomorrow. What a disgrace. Total disconnect to the oil price, watch tomorrow. Oil will be down 1 to 2 percent yet High Beta and Alpha Baytex will be down 30 cents or 4 percent. The stock will sell off tomorrow because we are sub $46 now and it will get hit hard. Just think about it, after all the 4 up days this week Baytex will finish the week at $5, up a mere 17 cents from the $4.83ow close. Newer lows amd lower highs. I am long and want this to do well but I am losing faith. I am very tempted to sell and buy back at $4 or $3. What I have done to minimize the losses is to sell half but now I need the price to go up 2x the original calculation to get my money to where it was. I am willing to accept this as my constant flipping has caused me to lose so much money. Anyways, I own about 26K shares and need $7.50 to break even now. I am $60000 in debt, a $2 downturn to $3 and I am wiped out on margin and would need $12 or so to get back to even. It makes me laugh and concerned that no one anticipates a possible move back to $35 oil. What do you think will happen if OPEC doesn't make a deal which they said they won't? Anyone saying shorting is risky here clearly doesn't understand the connection between he share price and oil! The losses going down accelerate once oil drops below $45. In other words, a move of oil from $45 to $40 is a loss if about ten percent but Baytex will go down three to 5 times that! If oil goes down $10 from here which is very possible watch out! How can this be a bottom when we have record production and no one willing to make a deal? Back to $35 oil, that's about a 20 percent drop and Baytex even at 2x accelerated loss to the downside would be down 40 percent from here. That's $3.40. You have to remember that Baytex loses sp at an accelerated rate under $45 oil, in fact it has lost share price at an accelerated rate from $50 a barrel. It's not one to one. For me to say $3 a share is a buy is because I anticipate a bottom around $35 oil. At that point production has to be impacted to help balance the market. Add in the EIA extending the rebalancing a year, as I mentioned three weeks ago the only thing that can save us is Algiers. No deal next week, immediate sell, Baytex will go down 80 cents and keep dropping. We have had two up days after 8 days of terrible losses, the immense selling is because there is a perception nothing will change about the over supply. I like the idea of making money after he deal, as oil will continue to go up for days after a deal. Rome wasn't build in a day, I bought today at $5.35 and am very upset, because it looks like a $5 close tomorrow, so much for Norman Bates $6 tomorrow. There will be so much volatility with the Presidential election I just can't see oil stabilizing here and I think we all missed the chance to sell at $9. I hate Friday's, oil always goes down. Worst case scenario, if I have a half position and oil goes up and there is a deal I can always buy back in. The money to be made is at $60 oil, the stock will run from $8 to $12 quickly, so playing with fire here at $5 is a damgerous game, as I mentioned earlier we can easily go to $3. Oil doubled from $26 earlier his year and the stock went up 600 percent, it can easily go down another 40 percent with only a $10 drop in the oil price, don't forget that. Immense speculation and risk here. To say $4.83 was the bottom is extremely limited in scope. Wish me luck, I sense $40 oil before $50 but don't shoot the messenger. Won't short at these levels but have reduced because I am scared.
So lucky,you have proven to be rhe George Costanza of investing ,proven by the zillions you have lost and the resulting depression so If you are convinced there is no deal , by the George rule, there must be one.!