Baytex financial forecast 2022Here are my Baytex forecast for 2022 ! (still very conservative number with a lot of upswing)
My main reason to do it, it's to evaluate the FCF and what they really can do with it in 2022.
Not included in the calculation below : Clearwater (much better netback) or any others prospect or partnership or production increase
Less financing and Unrealized fin deriv. (hedge now at 68$ instead of 52$) for 30 to 50M$
This method was use for the 1st 3 quarters of 2021, and it work (Error margin +/-1,5%)
Calculation include same metrics of Baytex for :
Netback at 61% of revenues.
AFF at 43% of Revenues and FCF very conservative at 22% of revenues, may reach easily 25% or more in 2022.
Base on 81,500 boe/d. Hedge price at 68$ and a WTI at 78$.
Revenues : 2,2B$ FCF : 540,2 M$
What they can do :
1st 6 months pay debt for 249,7 M$.
Next 6 months :
Buy back shares at 5,25$ for 28,2M out. Sh. = 148M$ (Very expensive)
At this price better pay debt
Start paying a dividend of 0,05 per share quarterly == 564M out. Sh. X 0,05 X 2 Q = 56,4M$
Cash left : 39 M$.
Is it enough to reach 6 to 8$ per share in 2022 !!??
Others facts :
If the WTI reach for example 100$ for 6 months in 2022 this may added 150M$ in revenues and probably 30M$ in FCF.
But if it's in the full year 2023 with no hedge and 85,000 boe/d KABOUM over 3,2B in revenues !!!
Buyback shares may cost higher, but it will be easy to increase dividend to 0,10 per share per quarter !
And clear 100% of the debt !!!
As you can see this stock will fly a bit in 2022, at least 6 to 8$.
But 2023, back to 15$ +
Any comments or facts to add... !!??
Please do your DD, it's your money !!!