RE:US Production flatYou're exactly right Wolf. Information I read indicates that the shale industry faces many headwinds to increase production. Of course the decline rate on existing producing wells is so high that you need to run hard just to keep production from dropping. But the headwinds to production growth from new wells include things like labour shortages, increasing cost of inputs(everything from steel to frac sand), declining inventory of high grade drilling locations because existing well density in prime areas is already so high, increasing Gas to Oil ratios in fields where they want to drill (very bad news for producers).
US production industry is incredibly resilient and resourceful, but I would not expect a tsunami of oil production increases coming from US shale over the next couple years.