Updated SPR and inventory summary 0 minutes ago
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Post# 34562032
Updated SPR and inventory summary
So folks, I dove into my "favorites" archives this morning to update this chart while enjoying my morning coffee.... Cheers to all those making a little coin on O&G...lets hope you're beating the CPI and inflation numbers....lol....
Seriously...best to each and every one of you trying to beat the big bad stock system...cheers
Of note: charts have been updated with SPR and inventory drops - updated for the last 4 months (last updated 11/19) ... Some highlights in
red and
green to pay attention to...
2021Gamble
(2337 November 24, 2021 - 05:36 PM
SPR summary Sept to MARCH 25 2022, Nov 19 2021, + some other info...enjoy
So...this is a start. ask specific questions anyone on additional info or analysis..
NOTE: important.. these charts reporting number in thousands of barrels https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm
the above is the "front" page of the data below...good one to bookmark - these detailed charts are available by hitting the date column on the right column in addition bookmark the weekly page which is here:
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/
it is the 2 pdf's in the highlight section that are the most important 10:30 release time on Wednesday Total Pretroleum products falling - down 274.808 mb over 16 months...that's a 115.420 million barrel drop in just over 4 months
Chart 2021 Total Petroleum inventories -
including the SPR - Total petroleum inventories are down 159.388 million barrels this year alone, and are falling very rapidly in recent weeks
| 2021-Jan | 01/01 | 1,981,780 | 01/08 | 1,972,355 | 01/15 | 1,971,674 | 01/22 | 1,959,968 | 01/29 | 1,962,887 |
| 2021-Feb | 02/05 | 1,951,553 | 02/12 | 1,936,352 | 02/19 | 1,922,540 | 02/26 | 1,919,752 | | |
| 2021-Mar | 03/05 | 1,921,071 | 03/12 | 1,924,658 | 03/19 | 1,929,445 | 03/26 | 1,928,098 | | |
| 2021-Apr | 04/02 | 1,930,406 | 04/09 | 1,920,248 | 04/16 | 1,923,069 | 04/23 | 1,919,995 | 04/30 | 1,913,365 |
| 2021-May | 05/07 | 1,915,851 | 05/14 | 1,913,717 | 05/21 | 1,904,404 | 05/28 | 1,905,678 | | |
| 2021-Jun | 06/04 | 1,919,796 | 06/11 | 1,914,257 | 06/18 | 1,906,745 | 06/25 | 1,900,762 | | |
| 2021-Jul | 07/02 | 1,889,667 | 07/09 | 1,892,157 | 07/16 | 1,896,581 | 07/23 | 1,890,130 | 07/30 | 1,888,961 |
| 2021-Aug | 08/06 | 1,888,825 | 08/13 | 1,883,527 | 08/20 | 1,878,737 | 08/27 | 1,865,118 | | |
| 2021-Sep | 09/03 | 1,854,727 | 09/10 | 1,845,415 | 09/17 | 1,841,627 | 09/24 | 1,851,676 | | |
| 2021-Oct | 10/01 | 1,851,562 | 10/08 | 1,855,682 | 10/15 | 1,844,183 | 10/22 | 1,847,479 | 10/29 | 1,846,463 |
| 2021-Nov | 11/05 | 1,842,133 | 11/12 | 1,830,012 | 11/19 | 1,822,392 | | | | |
| 2021-Dec | 12/03 | 1,827,222 | 12/10 | 1,809,406 | 12/17 | 1,799,881 | 12/24 | 1,779,614 | 12/31 | 1,788,433 |
| |
| 2022-Jan | 01/07 | 1,783,651 | 01/14 | 1,780,811 | 01/21 | 1,775,470 | 01/28 | 1,767,813 | | |
| 2022-Feb | 02/04 | 1,758,364 | 02/11 | 1,745,787 | 02/18 | 1,741,514 | 02/25 | 1,735,213 | | |
| 2022-Mar | 03/04 | 1,724,594 | 03/11 | 1,719,027 | 03/18 | 1,708,138 | 03/25 | 1,706,972 | | |
Here are the SPR numbers...from 638.1 all the way down to 604.5.... 2021 SPR drawdown to date is
33.583 mb this year - the weekly numbers reported by API and EIA make ZERO mention of this draw down until these past 2 weeks.
September 2021 to Nov 19th 2021 reduction 621.302-604.505 or
16.797 (of the 18). So, of the 50mb that is 'threatened' to be relased, 16.8mb has already been released - OPEC+ knows this all to well.. ... this is political propoganda at it's finest.. Last 4 months has seen an SPR drawdown of 36.183mb... That is 52.980mb since the Sept drawdown started - now ask yourself.... What did WTI do between then and now????? Opposite correlation ... Which we all knew would happen. A draw from the SPR does not lower prices.
16 month drawdown = 70.183mb
| 2021-Jan | 01/01 | 638,085 | 01/08 | 638,085 | 01/15 | 638,085 | 01/22 | 638,086 | 01/29 | 638,086 |
| 2021-Feb | 02/05 | 637,921 | 02/12 | 637,773 | 02/19 | 637,773 | 02/26 | 637,773 | | |
| 2021-Mar | 03/05 | 637,773 | 03/12 | 637,773 | 03/19 | 637,773 | 03/26 | 637,773 | | |
| 2021-Apr | 04/02 | 637,773 | 04/09 | 636,667 | 04/16 | 635,924 | 04/23 | 634,475 | 04/30 | 633,427 |
| 2021-May | 05/07 | 632,028 | 05/14 | 630,127 | 05/21 | 628,481 | 05/28 | 627,833 | | |
| 2021-Jun | 06/04 | 626,484 | 06/11 | 625,593 | 06/18 | 623,888 | 06/25 | 622,487 | | |
| 2021-Jul | 07/02 | 621,304 | 07/09 | 621,304 | 07/16 | 621,304 | 07/23 | 621,304 | 07/30 | 621,304 |
| 2021-Aug | 08/06 | 621,304 | 08/13 | 621,302 | 08/20 | 621,302 | 08/27 | 621,302 | | |
| 2021-Sep | 09/03 | 621,302 | 09/10 | 620,773 | 09/17 | 619,569 | 09/24 | 618,689 | | |
| 2021-Oct | 10/01 | 617,770 | 10/08 | 616,970 | 10/15 | 615,276 | 10/22 | 614,186 | 10/29 | 612,541 |
| 2021-Nov | 11/05 | 609,396 | 11/12 | 606,147 | 11/19 | 604,505 | |
| 2021-Dec | 12/03 | 600,867 | 12/10 | 598,917 | 12/17 | 596,381 | 12/24 | 595,028 | 12/31 | 593,682 |
| |
| 2022-Jan | 01/07 | 593,382 | 01/14 | 592,034 | 01/21 | 590,782 | 01/28 | 588,912 | | |
| 2022-Feb | 02/04 | 587,515 | 02/11 | 584,828 | 02/18 | 582,384 | 02/25 | 580,020 | | |
| 2022-Mar | 03/04 | 577,496 | 03/11 | 575,513 | 03/18 | 571,323 | 03/25 | 568,322 | | |
TWO years of
Total Gasoline Stocks below...Peak on 4/17/2020 - no surprise there....current levels 211,393 ... and falling each week. This is massive. Sub 200k is panic mode for supply at the pumps....this imo, is the real issue....US production not increased post pandemic because of shortage of employees, capex, share price, even the hedges which bankers forced limiting upside, Pipeline cancelled, world wide OPEC+ control of supply...it is a US worst case scenario
Gasoline stocks have been built up a little, sitting a little ahead of 2021, well off the 2020 peak surplus.... | 2020-Jan | 01/03 | 251,609 | 01/10 | 258,287 | 01/17 | 260,032 | 01/24 | 261,235 | 01/31 | 261,144 |
| 2020-Feb | 02/07 | 261,049 | 02/14 | 259,078 | 02/21 | 256,387 | 02/28 | 252,048 | | |
| 2020-Mar | 03/06 | 246,999 | 03/13 | 240,819 | 03/20 | 239,282 | 03/27 | 246,806 | | |
| 2020-Apr | 04/03 | 257,303 | 04/10 | 262,217 | 04/17 | 263,234 | 04/24 | 259,565 | | |
| 2020-May | 05/01 | 256,407 | 05/08 | 252,894 | 05/15 | 255,724 | 05/22 | 255,000 | 05/29 | 257,795 |
| 2020-Jun | 06/05 | 258,661 | 06/12 | 256,995 | 06/19 | 255,322 | 06/26 | 256,521 | | |
| 2020-Jul | 07/03 | 251,682 | 07/10 | 248,535 | 07/17 | 246,733 | 07/24 | 247,387 | 07/31 | 247,806 |
| 2020-Aug | 08/07 | 247,084 | 08/14 | 243,762 | 08/21 | 239,179 | 08/28 | 234,859 | | |
| 2020-Sep | 09/04 | 231,905 | 09/11 | 231,524 | 09/18 | 227,499 | 09/25 | 228,182 | | |
| 2020-Oct | 10/02 | 226,747 | 10/09 | 225,121 | 10/16 | 227,016 | 10/23 | 226,124 | 10/30 | 227,665 |
| 2020-Nov | 11/06 | 225,356 | 11/13 | 227,967 | 11/20 | 230,147 | 11/27 | 233,638 | | |
| 2020-Dec | 12/04 | 237,859 | 12/11 | 238,879 | 12/18 | 237,754 | 12/25 | 236,562 | | |
| |
| 2021-Jan | 01/01 | 241,081 | 01/08 | 245,476 | 01/15 | 245,217 | 01/22 | 247,686 | 01/29 | 252,153 |
| 2021-Feb | 02/05 | 256,412 | 02/12 | 257,084 | 02/19 | 257,096 | 02/26 | 243,472 | | |
| 2021-Mar | 03/05 | 231,603 | 03/12 | 232,075 | 03/19 | 232,279 | 03/26 | 230,544 | | |
| 2021-Apr | 04/02 | 234,588 | 04/09 | 234,897 | 04/16 | 234,982 | 04/23 | 235,074 | 04/30 | 235,811 |
| 2021-May | 05/07 | 236,189 | 05/14 | 234,226 | 05/21 | 232,481 | 05/28 | 233,980 | | |
| 2021-Jun | 06/04 | 241,026 | 06/11 | 242,980 | 06/18 | 240,050 | 06/25 | 241,572 | | |
| 2021-Jul | 07/02 | 235,497 | 07/09 | 236,535 | 07/16 | 236,414 | 07/23 | 234,161 | 07/30 | 228,870 |
| 2021-Aug | 08/06 | 227,469 | 08/13 | 228,165 | 08/20 | 225,924 | 08/27 | 227,214 | | |
| 2021-Sep | 09/03 | 219,999 | 09/10 | 218,142 | 09/17 | 221,616 | 09/24 | 221,809 | | |
| 2021-Oct | 10/01 | 225,065 | 10/08 | 223,107 | 10/15 | 217,739 | 10/22 | 215,746 | 10/29 | 214,258 |
| 2021-Nov | 11/05 | 212,703 | 11/12 | 211,996 | 11/19 | 211,393 |
| 2021-Dec | 12/03 | 219,304 | 12/10 | 218,585 | 12/17 | 224,118 | 12/24 | 222,659 | 12/31 | 232,787 |
| |
| 2022-Jan | 01/07 | 240,748 | 01/14 | 246,621 | 01/21 | 247,918 | 01/28 | 250,037 | | |
| 2022-Feb | 02/04 | 248,393 | 02/11 | 247,061 | 02/18 | 246,479 | 02/25 | 246,011 | | |
| 2022-Mar | 03/04 | 244,606 | 03/11 | 240,991 | 03/18 | 238,043 | 03/25 | 238,828 | | |
and now a look at jet fuel JET FUEL - is now below PRE-pandemic levels ....without full and free travel yet!!!!
we are at 37,494 where we peaked at 42.579 last year. Can you imagine if "free" travel was allowed without passports, PCR testing and such - the run on jet-fuel this past summer would have been catostophic to inventories!!!!
Jet fuel remains below pre pandemic levels...With an expected recent drops during christmas holidays and rexently for March break | 2020-Jan | 01/03 | 39,987 | 01/10 | 40,447 | 01/17 | 42,400 | 01/24 | 42,789 | 01/31 | 42,611 |
| 2020-Feb | 02/07 | 42,939 | 02/14 | 43,638 | 02/21 | 43,329 | 02/28 | 41,970 | | |
| 2020-Mar | 03/06 | 42,414 | 03/13 | 40,666 | 03/20 | 39,588 | 03/27 | 38,268 | | |
| 2020-Apr | 04/03 | 38,861 | 04/10 | 40,239 | 04/17 | 40,792 | 04/24 | 39,695 | | |
| 2020-May | 05/01 | 39,743 | 05/08 | 40,478 | 05/15 | 40,891 | 05/22 | 39,995 | 05/29 | 40,839 |
| 2020-Jun | 06/05 | 39,968 | 06/12 | 40,632 | 06/19 | 40,461 | 06/26 | 42,334 | | |
| 2020-Jul | 07/03 | 42,579 | 07/10 | 40,390 | 07/17 | 40,193 | 07/24 | 39,921 | 07/31 | 39,563 |
| 2020-Aug | 08/07 | 40,501 | 08/14 | 40,820 | 08/21 | 39,922 | 08/28 | 39,609 | | |
| 2020-Sep | 09/04 | 38,842 | 09/11 | 39,085 | 09/18 | 39,025 | 09/25 | 39,674 | | |
| 2020-Oct | 10/02 | 39,590 | 10/09 | 38,120 | 10/16 | 37,662 | 10/23 | 37,450 | 10/30 | 37,408 |
| 2020-Nov | 11/06 | 37,133 | 11/13 | 37,298 | 11/20 | 37,142 | 11/27 | 37,208 | | |
| 2020-Dec | 12/04 | 36,324 | 12/11 | 36,272 | 12/18 | 36,177 | 12/25 | 36,534 | | |
| |
| 2021-Jan | 01/01 | 38,794 | 01/08 | 37,300 | 01/15 | 39,456 | 01/22 | 40,611 | 01/29 | 42,404 |
| 2021-Feb | 02/05 | 41,900 | 02/12 | 41,141 | 02/19 | 41,197 | 02/26 | 38,696 | | |
| 2021-Mar | 03/05 | 39,241 | 03/12 | 38,709 | 03/19 | 39,199 | 03/26 | 39,029 | | |
| 2021-Apr | 04/02 | 38,267 | 04/09 | 36,986 | 04/16 | 37,487 | 04/23 | 38,118 | 04/30 | 39,795 |
| 2021-May | 05/07 | 40,640 | 05/14 | 41,457 | 05/21 | 42,216 | 05/28 | 42,277 | | |
| 2021-Jun | 06/04 | 43,960 | 06/11 | 45,240 | 06/18 | 44,866 | 06/25 | 44,706 | | |
| 2021-Jul | 07/02 | 45,091 | 07/09 | 44,390 | 07/16 | 44,974 | 07/23 | 45,053 | 07/30 | 43,298 |
| 2021-Aug | 08/06 | 42,899 | 08/13 | 42,993 | 08/20 | 44,443 | 08/27 | 42,436 | | |
| 2021-Sep | 09/03 | 41,764 | 09/10 | 42,199 | 09/17 | 42,377 | 09/24 | 42,609 | | |
| 2021-Oct | 10/01 | 41,291 | 10/08 | 41,408 | 10/15 | 41,005 | 10/22 | 41,391 | 10/29 | 39,642 |
| 2021-Nov | 11/05 | 37,897 | 11/12 | 37,983 | 11/19 | 37,494 | |
| 2021-Dec | 12/03 | 36,716 | 12/10 | 35,608 | 12/17 | 35,403 | 12/24 | 34,589 | 12/31 | 34,957 |
| |
| 2022-Jan | 01/07 | 34,453 | 01/14 | 34,664 | 01/21 | 36,968 | 01/28 | 37,288 | | |
| 2022-Feb | 02/04 | 38,361 | 02/11 | 37,692 | 02/18 | 37,847 | 02/25 | 38,188 | | |
| 2022-Mar | 03/04 | 39,163 | 03/11 | 38,768 | 03/18 | 36,356 | 03/25 | 36,082 | |