RE:I'll hold oil stocks until its time to flee them. 'China in QE while US in QT.'
The feds balance sheet has actually continued to expand throughout May and isnt 'scheduled' to shrink until June. We'll see though.. I suspect the US will be technically in recession following Q2 and if not, starting QT and ending asset purchases most certainly will be the straw. Id expect that, and the reasons you cited to cause a temporary pullback in WTI, but the structural supply deficit will ultimately take us to $200.
I don't see how we avoid an inflationary recession given the amount of debt, the continued expansion of money and credit and ultimately, western governments response to the next recession.